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The space junk FALCON 9 DEB is forecast to reentry Monday, 14 Nov 2022 at 20:13 UTC +/- 8 hours
FALCON 9 DEB

Forecast for FALCON 9 DEB Reentry


Update Fri 30-Sep-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FALCON 9 DEB (53809U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 14 Nov 2022 at 20:13 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-2
202149073U97º14213487Reentered!
Lat=59.9   Lon=321
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-24
202253880U52º14013687Reentered!
Lat=-24.3   Lon=0.9
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-28
202253816U98º18112488Reentered!
Lat=58.4   Lon=70.5
ELFIN-B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
201843616U93º21320689Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
202253513U98º17816688Forecast
BINAR-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
199849272U52º19518288Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-1
202253514U98º19418288Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202253103U40º27519989Forecast
SPACEBEE-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
201843140U97º27826490Forecast
STPSAT-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
199845043U52º24223289Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253875U53º26920789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253511U98º23823389Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253872U53º27920989Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253512U98º23923389Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253874U53º27120989Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253873U53º27621189Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-14
202253756U53º27326390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202253751U53º27726890Forecast
RAMSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-16
199848850U52º28027290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-16
202253753U53º27926890Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-17
202149054U37º32726790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-17
202253755U53º27426690Forecast
PEGASUS R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-17
200832766U13º30426490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-17
202253696U98º28126490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-18
202253697U98º28126590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-22
202253695U98º28627490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-22
202253752U53º28527590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-23
202253694U98º29127690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-26
202253808U53º31030291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-14
202253809U53º31730991Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-15
202253810U53º31830691Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-16
202253811U53º32131391Forecast
SHERPA-LTC2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-21
202253754U53º30028890Forecast
1998-067TD
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-25
199851441U52º34433791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-1
202253812U53º32331391Forecast
RED-EYE 2 (MERLOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-2
199845800U52º32331891Forecast
RED-EYE 3 (CABERNET)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-3
199845809U52º32431891Forecast
PATCOOL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-4
199851442U52º34433891Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-13
201843600U97º31630591Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-19
199848833U52º34133891Forecast
ERBS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-29
198415354U57º34534391Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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