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The space junk CZ-4B R/B is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 18 Jan 2023 at 15:20 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-4B R/B

Forecast for CZ-4B R/B Reentry


Update Wed 8-Feb-2023 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-4B R/B (53349U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 18 Jan 2023 at 15:20 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
LIGHT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-16
199851509U52º23523389Reentered!
Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-16
201541172U15º23522489Reentered!
Lat=1.5   Lon=288
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-18
202253349U97º25020489Reentered!
Forecast
LEMUR-2-YUASA
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-19
201843560U52º27625590Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-22
201440306U97º25324890Reentered!
Forecast
FALCONSAT-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-23
200730776U35º28326990Reentered!
Forecast
JAGSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-24
199853771U52º30329290Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU 12 (RS6S)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-26
199853311U52º30229490Reentered!
Forecast
SURFSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-27
201843614U93º28928290Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-28
199853306U52º30830091Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU 7 (RS1S)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-29
199853309U52º31030291Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU UA
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-29
199853322U52º30829991Reentered!
Forecast
1998-067TS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-30
199853307U52º31330591Reentered!
Forecast
TSIOLKOVSKY-RYAZAN 1 (*)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-30
199853312U52º31330491Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU 10 (RS4S)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-30
199853321U52º31430691Reentered!
Forecast
TSIOLKOVSKY-RYAZAN 2 (*)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-30
199853313U52º31230391Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU 11 (RS5S)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-30
199853310U52º31430791Reentered!
Forecast
CAPSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-31
199853770U52º32031091Reentered!
Forecast
YUZGU 9 (RS3S)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-31
199853308U52º31630891Reentered!
Forecast
TUMNANOSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-2
199853464U52º32131191Reentered!
Forecast
IRVINE01
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-3
201843693U85º34833791Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-6 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-4
201540913U97º28326190Reentered!
Forecast
LEMUR-2-VU
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-8
201843558U52º33332791Reentered!
Forecast
CP7 (DAVE)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-14
201843615U93º32231491Forecast
1998-067TQ
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-17
199853305U52º34033491Forecast
FUTABA
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-21
199853463U52º34533691Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-26
198011822U81º30430091Forecast
SZ-13 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-15
202152260U41º31529791Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-16
201843600U97º31630691Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-16
202149774U53º34834191Forecast
LEMUR-2-TOMHENDERSON
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-21
201843561U52º34934691Forecast
ICS-EF (ISS DEB)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-31
199845265U52º32532591Forecast
MMSATS-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-04-25
199847976U52º34434091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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