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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Tue 20-Jul-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-26
201944074U39º21619489Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-1
202046390U50º13312387Reentered!
Lat=33.3   Lon=223.7
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-2
202148870U52º15013887Reentered!
Lat=33.9   Lon=223.8
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-3
202148853U41º17514488Reentered!
Lat=3   Lon=177
STARLINK-2529
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-18
202148457U53º34233291Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1198
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-18
202045200U53º31631491Reentered!
Forecast
CREW DRAGON DEMO-1 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-19
201944064U52º25124889Reentered!
Lat=-35.8   Lon=316
STARLINK-1164
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-27
202045070U53º32432091Forecast
STARLINK-1652
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-29
202046367U53º31331291Forecast
KESTREL EYE IIM (KE2M)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-3
199842982U52º26926590Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-11
201843637U98º34222690Forecast
ENTRYSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
199844429U52º29929290Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-1
202045942U98º33924990Forecast
1998-067PN
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-21
199843638U52º31430991Forecast
STARLINK-2563
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-10
202148410U53º35134892Forecast
RAAVANA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-10
199844329U52º33532791Forecast
NEPALISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-11
199844331U52º33532791Forecast
UGUISU
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-15
199844330U52º33732991Forecast
SPOOQY-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-23
199844332U52º33833191Forecast
UNITE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-4
199844031U52º33132691Forecast
VCC B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-14
199844431U52º33933491Forecast
VCC A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-18
199844428U52º34133691Forecast
STARLINK-1756
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-22
202046379U53º34934191Forecast
STARLINK-2317
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202147982U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2305
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202147989U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2725
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-24
202148681U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-1075
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-10
202044958U53º30530491Forecast
STARLINK-2581
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-30
202148412U53º35134892Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-20
201843600U97º31430991Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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