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The space junk GUARANISAT-1 is forecast to reentry Sunday, 26 Jun 2022 at 10:25 UTC +/- 8 hours
GUARANISAT-1

Forecast for GUARANISAT-1 Reentry


Update Thu 26-May-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk GUARANISAT-1 (47931U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 26 Jun 2022 at 10:25 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-30
202149964U97º14912987Reentered!
Lat=48.4   Lon=291.6
2022-050C
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-13
202252511U41º28416689Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202252428U97º19012788Reentered!
Lat=-18   Lon=345.4
YZ-1S R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202252719U86º3339289Reentered!
Lat=-56   Lon=211.2
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-25
202252512U41º15713287Reentered!
Lat=32.2   Lon=10.3
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-29
202252393U97º34114789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-30
202252316U53º23722189Forecast
2022-050B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-31
202252510U41º27422590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-31
202252314U53º24923089Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-1
202252315U53º25123189Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-5
202252387U53º26524990Forecast
RSP-01
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-7
199847925U52º29128490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-9
202252386U53º27325690Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-10
199845258U52º28127390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-10
202252384U53º28226190Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-12
202252385U53º28226290Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
199844306U52º27727090Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
202252507U53º28627190Forecast
GT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-14
199851510U52º33432191Forecast
DESCENT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-14
199846927U52º29529090Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-16
202252506U53º28527390Forecast
STARLINK-1809
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-16
202046708U53º29928590Forecast
SPOC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-17
199846921U52º30630191Forecast
STARLINK-2306
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
202147988U53º29829190Forecast
STARLINK-2023
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
202147605U53º29929390Forecast
NEUTRON-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-19
199846923U52º30830391Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-20
202252505U53º29427690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252596U53º29828190Forecast
DAILI
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-22
199851443U52º34032791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-23
202252653U53º29828690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-23
202252504U53º29627990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-23
202252597U53º29628390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-24
202252595U53º30028790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-25
202252652U53º30528790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-26
202252712U53º30528890Forecast
GUARANISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-26
199847931U52º32331791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-26
202252711U53º30429190Forecast
TSURU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
199847927U52º32431891Forecast
STARLINK-1214
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
202045224U53º29929690Forecast
MAYA-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-28
199847929U52º32331791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-28
202252651U53º30628990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-29
202252589U53º30428890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-29
202252710U53º31029191Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-2
202252709U53º31129391Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-6
199844303U52º30830391Forecast
STARLINK-3886
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-9
202252582U53º35134892Forecast
RED-EYE 1 (PINOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-13
199844364U52º31831091Forecast
STARLINK-2239
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-13
202148017U53º33332891Forecast
SIMPL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-17
199842983U52º29829290Forecast
PROPCUBE 2 (FAUNA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-18
201743052U52º34633791Forecast
STARLINK-3307
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-19
202150164U53º32330791Forecast
AEROCUBE 7B (OCSD B)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-20
201743042U52º35034091Forecast
BREEZE-KM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-21
201339454U88º29929590Forecast
STARLINK-1514
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-23
202046046U53º34333491Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-23
202252654U53º29728590Forecast
STARLINK-3754
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-17
202252350U53º35034992Forecast
SORTIE
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-21
199845264U52º34934191Forecast
STARLINK-3812
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-23
202252346U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3798
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-23
202252371U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1874
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-26
202047159U53º30029891Forecast
STARLINK-3996
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-28
202252617U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1367
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-30
202045539U53º34333191Forecast
ISS DEB (SEDA-AP)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-31
199843870U52º33032491Forecast
STARLINK-3995
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-31
202252632U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3537
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-31
202252088U53º33532891Forecast
STARLINK-2080
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-4
202147365U53º33732291Forecast
STARLINK-3846
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-5
202252647U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1885
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-6
202047168U53º30229991Forecast
STARLINK-3928
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-8
202252606U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3927
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-14
202252569U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3992
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-15
202252627U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3803
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-15
202252381U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3954
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-18
202252558U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3920
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-20
202252575U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3957
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-29
202252562U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-4022
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-1
202252629U53º35035092Forecast
STARLINK-3969
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-2
202252551U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3952
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-9
202252534U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3817
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-11
202252367U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3941
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202252638U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3923
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202252489U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3854
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202252648U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3994
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-14
202252633U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3827
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252370U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3852
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-20
202252345U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1501
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-21
202045763U53º33832791Forecast
STARLINK-3925
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-25
202252498U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3961
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-27
202252637U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-4016
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-30
202252603U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3851
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-1
202252344U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3850
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-5
202252342U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3982
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-5
202252614U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3977
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-5
202252640U53º35034892Forecast
STARLINK-4000
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-13
202252605U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3728
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-15
202252361U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3997
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-18
202252609U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3951
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-19
202252533U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3830
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-20
202252363U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-4026
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-22
202252600U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3922
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-24
202252584U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3841
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-25
202252369U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3937
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-27
202252542U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3975
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-27
202252620U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3971
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-29
202252642U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3973
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-30
202252645U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3868
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-3
202252649U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3984
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-6
202252621U53º35034992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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