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The space junk STARLINK-1516 is forecast to reentry Friday, 07 May 2021 at 04:13 UTC +/- 8 hours
STARLINK-1516

Forecast for STARLINK-1516 Reentry


Update Mon 12-Apr-2021 15:17 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk STARLINK-1516 (45749U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 07 May 2021 at 04:13 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
STARLINK-1824
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-03-30
202046721U53º25825590Reentered!
Forecast
IOD-1 GEMS
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-5
199844385U52º30830491Reentered!
Lat=45.3   Lon=12.2
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-8
201944240U53º34634091Reentered!
Lat=-30.3   Lon=341.8
CATSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-19
199844029U52º30329891Forecast
CATSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-20
199844033U52º30329991Forecast
SL-8 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-24
199925723U48º28427790Forecast
STARLINK-1516
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-7
202045749U53º29429190Forecast
TEMPEST-D
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-7
199843547U52º33633291Forecast
STARLINK-1438
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-14
202045715U53º25524690Forecast
VCC C
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-14
199844430U52º33533291Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-18
199844788U52º34534291Forecast
DELLINGR (RBLE)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-29
199843021U52º31030891Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-17
201944750U53º26425390Forecast
STARS-ME
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-18
199843640U52º33032791Forecast
CREW DRAGON DEMO-1 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-10
201944064U52º33633291Forecast
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-10
202046390U50º31029691Forecast
KESTREL EYE IIM (KE2M)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-10
199842982U52º32231791Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-11
201843600U97º31630691Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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