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The space junk QUETZAL-1 is forecast to reentry Sunday, 06 Mar 2022 at 03:30 UTC +/- 8 hours
QUETZAL-1

Forecast for QUETZAL-1 Reentry


Update Thu 20-Jan-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk QUETZAL-1 (45598U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 06 Mar 2022 at 03:30 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-22
202149502U97º20110988Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-15
202147970U45º19016488Reentered!
Lat=-40.9   Lon=265.6
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-17
199844427U52º22921789Reentered!
Forecast
EPSILON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-20
202149405U98º16713187Reentered!
Lat=-61.4   Lon=1.7
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-20
202250854U53º17215288Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250855U53º22417889Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250853U53º22818189Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1204
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202045203U53º24123389Reentered!
Lat=51.4   Lon=7.2
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250852U53º24018489Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-2201
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-23
202147415U97º26726190Forecast
STARLINK-2208
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-23
202147422U97º26626190Forecast
STARLINK-2202
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-24
202147416U97º26526290Forecast
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-24
202147414U97º26825990Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-26
201944257U53º30529390Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-27
202149493U97º28318189Forecast
STARLINK-1599
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-30
202046143U53º32332091Forecast
STARLINK-1379
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-1
202045549U53º31230391Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-6
199845263U52º29028490Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-8
199845259U52º29428890Forecast
STARLINK-1751
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-10
202046378U53º30630591Forecast
STARLINK-1870
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-12
202047156U53º34534291Forecast
ISARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-17
201743050U52º32431791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-27
202046090U53º30329490Forecast
QUETZAL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-6
199845598U52º32631991Forecast
DEMI
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-11
199845916U52º33733491Forecast
STARLINK-1668
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-12
202046536U53º32730491Forecast
STARLINK-1786
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-29
202046688U53º30529491Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-29
202047140U53º29928890Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-2
198516111U97º30530191Forecast
STARLINK-2313
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-4
202147986U53º33332691Forecast
STARLINK-3303
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-6
202150162U53º34033891Forecast
STARLINK-1439
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-8
202045716U53º33032591Forecast
STARLINK-1889
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-15
202047172U53º34534291Forecast
STARLINK-2366
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-18
202147906U53º34133891Forecast
STARLINK-3307
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-19
202150164U53º35134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-21
202046087U53º33132191Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-21
202046086U53º33432291Forecast
STARLINK-1840
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-23
202047131U53º30229390Forecast
STARLINK-3269
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-26
202150194U53º35034992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-27
202046084U53º33932991Forecast
STARLINK-3258
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-27
202150206U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3282
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-28
202150177U53º35134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-28
202046085U53º33732991Forecast
STARLINK-1469
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-29
202045752U53º32732091Forecast
STARLINK-3296
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-30
202150168U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3261
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-2
202150193U53º35134992Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-3
201843600U97º31430591Forecast
STARLINK-3270
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-5
202150199U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1214
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-19
202045224U53º34133791Forecast
STARLINK-2173
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-24
202148560U53º30229791Forecast
STARLINK-1985
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-8
202147631U53º33533491Forecast
STARLINK-3268
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
202150190U53º35034992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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