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The space junk QARMAN is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 09 Feb 2022 at 19:56 UTC +/- 8 hours
QARMAN

Forecast for QARMAN Reentry


Update Thu 2-Dec-2021 20:25 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk QARMAN (45263U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 09 Feb 2022 at 19:56 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-15
202149053U37º19415988Reentered!
Lat=-3.4   Lon=68.2
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202149473U42º26815289Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202149500U52º14914687Reentered!
Lat=35.2   Lon=47.6
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149472U42º19415388Reentered!
Lat=-42   Lon=158.3
STARLINK-1757
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202046339U53º25023789Forecast
STARLINK-2207
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-8
202147421U97º30830691Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-9
202149128U96º22521589Forecast
AZTECHSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-9
199845261U52º26125090Forecast
STARLINK-2289
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202147983U53º31231091Forecast
STARLINK-2302
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148024U53º31331091Forecast
STARLINK-2261
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148004U53º31331191Forecast
STARLINK-2311
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202147987U53º31331091Forecast
STARLINK-2259
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148007U53º31231091Forecast
SPACEBEE-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-14
201944370U45º30528690Forecast
STARLINK-2281
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-14
202148015U53º31530891Forecast
STARLINK-2287
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-16
202148035U53º31530891Forecast
NARSSCUBE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-18
199844792U52º28727890Forecast
STARLINK-2079
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-20
202147364U53º29829790Forecast
LEMUR-2-BAXTER-OLIVER
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-20
199846925U52º28827990Forecast
2020-063G
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-24
202046395U50º24323889Forecast
CHEFSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-26
201743044U52º32131391Forecast
1998-067RU
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-29
199846924U52º32031191Forecast
STARLINK-1943
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-4
202046795U53º30830591Forecast
STARLINK-2297
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-7
202148032U53º34233191Forecast
STARLINK-1439
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-9
202045716U53º34633791Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-11
202044916U53º30129891Forecast
LEMUR-2-DJARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-11
199846926U52º32331791Forecast
STARLINK-2318
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-14
202148025U53º32431991Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-18
201944756U53º30630291Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-19
199844427U52º31430891Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-9
199845263U52º34333391Forecast
STARLINK-2206
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-10
202147420U97º30530291Forecast
STARLINK-2203
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-14
202147417U97º30530291Forecast
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-14
202147414U97º30530291Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-21
202047140U53º33431791Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-21
199845259U52º34333391Forecast
STARLINK-3132
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-5
202149457U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3154
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-7
202149417U53º34534291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-7
202046090U53º33332491Forecast
STARLINK-3124
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-13
202149456U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2205
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-14
202147419U97º30430291Forecast
STARLINK-3160
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-16
202149454U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3149
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-26
202149423U53º35134892Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-4
201843600U97º31630491Forecast
STARLINK-3125
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-15
202149451U53º35134892Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-21
202046087U53º34833791Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-11
198516111U97º32831791Forecast
STARLINK-3108
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-29
202149439U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3141
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-7
202149459U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3146
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-14
202149414U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2366
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-17
202147906U53º34033891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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