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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sat 27-Nov-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-30
202149339U98º24211188Reentered!
Lat=-14   Lon=43
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-30
202149380U52º13613187Reentered!
Lat=48.8   Lon=278.3
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-1
202149327U41º16013287Reentered!
Lat=-41.5   Lon=121.8
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-15
202149053U37º19415988Reentered!
Lat=-3.4   Lon=68.2
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202149473U42º26815289Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202149500U52º14914687Reentered!
Lat=35.2   Lon=47.6
STARLINK-1254
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202045216U53º17015888Reentered!
Lat=42   Lon=152.1
STARLINK-2277
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-29
202148006U53º25924990Forecast
STARLINK-1875
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-30
202047160U53º25724790Forecast
STARLINK-2262
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-30
202148001U53º25824890Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149472U42º31718790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149461U53º25718689Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149463U53º25418789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149462U53º25518789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202149468U53º25318489Forecast
STARLINK-2079
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202147364U53º32332291Forecast
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202147414U97º33233091Forecast
STARLINK-2203
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202147417U97º33233091Forecast
STARLINK-2206
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202147420U97º33233091Forecast
STARLINK-2207
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-3
202147421U97º34434391Forecast
STARLINK-3123
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-3
202149429U53º24618289Forecast
STARLINK-2199
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-3
202147413U97º33032791Forecast
STARLINK-2205
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-3
202147419U97º33533291Forecast
STARLINK-1501
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
202045763U53º34134091Forecast
STARLINK-2080
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
202147365U53º35033991Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
202149128U96º23922989Forecast
STARLINK-2302
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202148024U53º32732591Forecast
STARLINK-2311
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202147987U53º32732591Forecast
STARLINK-2259
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202148007U53º32732591Forecast
STARLINK-2318
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202148025U53º32732591Forecast
STARLINK-2289
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202147983U53º32732691Forecast
STARLINK-2261
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202148004U53º32732691Forecast
STARLINK-2281
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202148015U53º33032391Forecast
STARLINK-2287
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
202148035U53º32932491Forecast
AZTECHSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-12
199845261U52º28227090Forecast
STARLINK-1204
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202045203U53º31130991Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-18
202044916U53º31331391Forecast
SPACEBEE-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-19
201944370U45º31829991Forecast
LEMUR-2-BAXTER-OLIVER
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-21
199846925U52º29929190Forecast
STARLINK-1188
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-22
202045220U53º30930491Forecast
STARLINK-1674
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-23
202046555U53º30530291Forecast
NARSSCUBE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-27
199844792U52º29728690Forecast
STARLINK-1757
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-29
202046339U53º29929690Forecast
2020-063G
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-30
202046395U50º25024589Forecast
STARLINK-2297
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-3
202148032U53º34833891Forecast
1998-067RU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-8
199846924U52º32731891Forecast
LEMUR-2-DJARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-9
199846926U52º32932491Forecast
STARLINK-1943
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-10
202046795U53º31231091Forecast
CHEFSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-15
201743044U52º32832091Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-2
199844427U52º31931291Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-5
201944756U53º30229791Forecast
STARLINK-1469
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-9
202045752U53º34133991Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-5
199845263U52º34633591Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-7
199845259U52º34633691Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-24
202047140U53º33632191Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-5
202046090U53º33532791Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-26
201843600U97º31830591Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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