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The space junk RAAVANA-1 is forecast to reentry Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:01 UTC +/- 8 hours
RAAVANA-1

Forecast for RAAVANA-1 Reentry


Update Sat 19-Jun-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk RAAVANA-1 (44329U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:01 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-4
202148415U53º21119089Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-6
202148491U53º22120889Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-6
202148414U53º22520589Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-7
202148413U53º22420489Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-10
202148490U53º23221789Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-11
202148488U53º23822389Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-2353
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-12
202147893U53º33032791Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-12
202148489U53º24022789Reentered!
Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-13
199844789U52º27326190Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-14
202148804U41º31019190Reentered!
Lat=-24.5   Lon=220
STARLINK-1105
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-26
202045218U53º24924389Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-29
201944279U53º29828590Forecast
STARS-ME
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-30
199843640U52º27626690Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-3
201944074U39º30028490Forecast
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-6
202046390U50º25625290Forecast
STARLINK-1516
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-12
202045749U53º25824890Forecast
STARLINK-1473
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-23
202045737U53º27526390Forecast
CREW DRAGON DEMO-1 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-29
201944064U52º29628990Forecast
TEMPEST-D
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-24
199843547U52º28528090Forecast
ENTRYSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-28
199844429U52º32431891Forecast
KESTREL EYE IIM (KE2M)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-13
199842982U52º29228890Forecast
STARLINK-2301
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-8
202148021U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2289
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-10
202147983U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2325
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-12
202147979U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2290
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-12
202147994U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2469
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-12
202148128U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2318
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-12
202148025U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2302
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-13
202148024U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2459
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-14
202148119U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2254
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-16
202148005U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2455
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-16
202148117U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2262
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
202148001U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2270
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
202148000U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2437
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-18
202148102U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2229
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-18
202147992U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2279
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-18
202147991U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2284
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-18
202148016U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2261
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202148004U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2266
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202147997U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2243
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202148013U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2297
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202148032U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2287
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202148035U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2283
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202148014U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2285
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-20
202148019U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2486
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-20
202148143U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2218
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-20
202147999U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2467
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-20
202148126U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2260
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-21
202147996U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2271
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-22
202148008U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2438
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-22
202148103U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2440
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-25
202148105U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2443
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-25
202148107U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2307
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-1
202147990U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2418
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-2
202148097U53º35134892Forecast
1998-067PN
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-3
199843638U52º32532191Forecast
STARLINK-2523
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-9
202148306U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2537
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-10
202148301U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2549
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-15
202148314U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2528
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-15
202148307U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2277
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-16
202148006U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2562
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-18
202148288U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2547
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-18
202148286U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2559
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-20
202148298U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2541
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-22
202148313U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2507
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-22
202148316U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2536
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-22
202148310U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2265
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202148002U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2546
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-24
202148296U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2513
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-24
202148317U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2543
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-24
202148278U53º35134992Forecast
RAAVANA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-25
199844329U52º34533991Forecast
STARLINK-2524
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202148304U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2519
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202148305U53º35034992Forecast
NEPALISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
199844331U52º34533991Forecast
STARLINK-2061
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-27
202148312U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2550
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-27
202148293U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2557
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-27
202148299U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2520
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-27
202148281U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2516
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-28
202148283U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2535
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-28
202148295U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2517
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-29
202148309U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2544
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202148297U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2492
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202148149U53º35134892Forecast
UGUISU
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
199844330U52º34634091Forecast
STARLINK-2555
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202148291U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2567
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202148276U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2545
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202148289U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2533
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-5
202148294U53º35034992Forecast
SPOOQY-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-8
199844332U52º34734291Forecast
STARLINK-2216
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-10
202148012U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2313
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-16
202147986U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2306
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-17
202147988U53º35134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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