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The space junk RAAVANA-1 is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 05 Oct 2021 at 01:08 UTC +/- 8 hours
RAAVANA-1

Forecast for RAAVANA-1 Reentry


Update Sat 18-Sep-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk RAAVANA-1 (44329U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 05 Oct 2021 at 01:08 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KESTREL EYE IIM (KE2M)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-28
199842982U52º14814387Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-9
202045942U98º15012487Reentered!
Lat=-15.1   Lon=72.8
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-16
202147348U90º17513888Reentered!
Lat=-76.5   Lon=273.8
STARLINK-1095
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-20
202044971U53º24722989Forecast
1998-067PN
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-24
199843638U52º23722789Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-27
201944287U53º30529391Forecast
STARLINK-1836
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-28
202047127U53º32031091Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-30
202149130U70º31820490Forecast
RAAVANA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-5
199844329U52º27827290Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-6
201944281U53º32932191Forecast
NEPALISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-6
199844331U52º28027490Forecast
AEROCUBE 8B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-8
201540660U55º28224590Forecast
UGUISU
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-10
199844330U52º28628190Forecast
SPOOQY-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-15
199844332U52º29228890Forecast
STARLINK-1607
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
202046145U53º31131091Forecast
VCC B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
199844431U52º29729290Forecast
AEROCUBE 8A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
201540659U55º30025790Forecast
STARLINK-1044
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
201944749U53º31830791Forecast
COSMOS 2551
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-26
202149127U96º30128790Forecast
VCC A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-4
199844428U52º30530091Forecast
STARLINK-1756
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-10
202046379U53º31531391Forecast
UNITE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-11
199844031U52º29629390Forecast
STARLINK-2318
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-30
202148025U53º34433591Forecast
STARLINK-2311
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202147987U53º34533491Forecast
STARLINK-2261
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202148004U53º34433591Forecast
STARLINK-2302
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202148024U53º34533491Forecast
STARLINK-2277
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-2
202148006U53º34433691Forecast
STARLINK-2281
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202148015U53º34633491Forecast
STARLINK-1081
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-6
202044962U53º30729191Forecast
STARLINK-1794
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
202046695U53º30529491Forecast
CRYOCUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-23
199845260U52º35034992Forecast
NARSSCUBE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-29
199844792U52º34834891Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-19
202149128U96º30528890Forecast
AZTECHSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-22
199845261U52º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2259
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-24
202148007U53º34533491Forecast
2020-063G
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-4
202046395U50º29528690Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-14
201843600U97º31530991Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-11
199844427U52º35234992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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