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The space junk DELPHINI is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 10:28 UTC +/- 8 hours
DELPHINI

Forecast for DELPHINI Reentry


Update Tue 24-Nov-2020 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk DELPHINI (44030U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 10:28 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-30
202046669U53º13212787Reentered!
Lat=42   Lon=110.9
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-5
201944500U45º16916288Reentered!
Lat=-29.4   Lon=4
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-8
201944825U97º19919488Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-16
202046803U53º24422489Reentered!
Lat=-21   Lon=45.2
UITMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-21
199843589U52º26425990Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-21
202046801U53º25223889Reentered!
Forecast
MAYA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-22
199843590U52º26626090Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-22
202046799U53º25824089Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-24
202046800U53º25924089Reentered!
Forecast
CUBERRT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-29
199843546U52º29929490Forecast
SIRIUSSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-28
199843596U52º30029590Forecast
RAINCUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-28
199843548U52º30730491Forecast
EQUISAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-5
199843552U52º30930791Forecast
UBAKUSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-6
199843467U52º30730391Forecast
HALOSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-8
199843549U52º31531491Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-1
199844305U52º34534291Forecast
SIRIUSSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-11
199843595U52º30029590Forecast
STARLINK-60
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-16
201944273U53º34934291Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-28
201944750U53º30430191Forecast
DELPHINI
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-03-31
199844030U52º34934791Forecast
1998-067PP
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-5
199843639U52º34134091Forecast
RADSAT-G
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-27
199843553U52º34234091Forecast
STARLINK-1175
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-27
202045097U53º33132891Forecast
SL-8 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-10
199925723U48º33232691Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-23
201843600U97º31630791Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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