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The space junk SIRIUSSAT-2 is forecast to reentry Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 08:07 UTC +/- 8 hours
SIRIUSSAT-2

Forecast for SIRIUSSAT-2 Reentry


Update Wed 21-Oct-2020 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SIRIUSSAT-2 (43596U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 18 Dec 2020 at 08:07 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-28
201944832U97º16915588Reentered!
Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-2
199221941U28313989Reentered!
Lat=-3.7   Lon=8.4
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-6
201641868U43º16215088Reentered!
Lat=-34.9   Lon=239.8
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-7
202046531U52º14413187Reentered!
Lat=-2.3   Lon=284.8
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-9
201944830U97º15614187Reentered!
Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-15
199843551U52º15414888Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-15
201944263U53º14413987Reentered!
Lat=-43.3   Lon=289.5
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-19
202046614U52º20818788Reentered!
Lat=-41.8   Lon=226.5
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-22
201944276U53º27526790Forecast
STARLINK-1157
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-23
202045055U53º28027790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-29
202046594U53º26324790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-8
202046595U53º26424790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-13
202046592U53º27125190Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-14
202046593U53º27025090Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-14
201944825U97º30027490Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-20
201944500U45º31525090Forecast
BHUTAN-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-4
199843591U52º29829190Forecast
UITMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-6
199843589U52º29929290Forecast
MAYA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-7
199843590U52º29929390Forecast
STARLINK-1268
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-11
202045385U53º33432891Forecast
CUBERRT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-14
199843546U52º32532291Forecast
SIRIUSSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-18
199843596U52º31531391Forecast
STARLINK-1077
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-19
202044960U53º27927790Forecast
STARLINK-1469
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-29
202045752U53º30029590Forecast
RAINCUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-29
199843548U52º32131991Forecast
UBAKUSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-31
199843467U52º31931691Forecast
EQUISAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-6
199843552U52º32231991Forecast
SIRIUSSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-14
199843595U52º31831191Forecast
HALOSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-26
199843549U52º32832691Forecast
STARLINK-1175
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-03-20
202045097U53º30529891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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