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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Mon 3-Oct-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-24
202253880U52º14013687Reentered!
Lat=-24.3   Lon=0.9
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-28
202253816U98º18112488Reentered!
Lat=58.4   Lon=70.5
ELFIN-B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
201843616U93º15113887Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
202253513U98º17115988Reentered!
Forecast
BINAR-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
199849272U52º14714087Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-1
202253514U98º14112887Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-2
202253103U40º15713987Reentered!
Lat=37.6   Lon=276.1
2022-122D
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-2
202253958U137º23918489Reentered!
Forecast
SPACEBEE-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
201843140U97º21719989Forecast
2022-122B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202253956U137º18616688Forecast
2022-122C
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202253957U137º25520989Forecast
STPSAT-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-4
199845043U52º21920789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253511U98º21520589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253872U53º24119289Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253875U53º23519289Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253874U53º23719389Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253873U53º24219589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253512U98º21921189Forecast
2022-122A
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253955U137º26020689Forecast
2022-122E
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-8
202253959U137º26021589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-11
202253941U53º29321790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-11
202253939U53º29822090Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202253938U53º30321990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202253940U53º29421890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202253756U53º26325290Forecast
RAMSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
199848850U52º27126190Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-14
202253751U53º26825990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-14
202253696U98º27225590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-14
202253697U98º27225790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202253753U53º27125990Forecast
PEGASUS R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
200832766U13º28825390Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202149054U37º31325890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-16
202253755U53º26625790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-18
202253695U98º27926790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-18
202253694U98º28326990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202253752U53º27926990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-21
202253808U53º30529591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-7
202253811U53º31831091Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-9
202253809U53º31430691Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-9
202253810U53º31430291Forecast
SHERPA-LTC2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-15
202253754U53º29728590Forecast
1998-067TD
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-18
199851441U52º34233491Forecast
PATCOOL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-21
199851442U52º34133491Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-22
202253812U53º32131191Forecast
RED-EYE 2 (MERLOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-2
199845800U52º32131591Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-3
199848833U52º33933691Forecast
RED-EYE 3 (CABERNET)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-3
199845809U52º32231591Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-8
201843600U97º31830591Forecast
ERBS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-2
198415354U57º34334291Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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