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O lixo espacial CZ-11 R/B está previsto para reentrar Domingo, 29 Mai 2022 as 11:17 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-11 R/B

Previsão de Reentrada CZ-11 R/B


Atualizado Sábado, 28 Mai 2022 15:15 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial CZ-11 R/B (52393U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Domingo, 29 Mai 2022 as 11:17 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-30
202149964U97º14912987Reentered!
Lat=48.4   Lon=291.6
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202252428U97º19012788Reentered!
Lat=-18   Lon=345.4
YZ-1S R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202252719U86º3339289Reentered!
Lat=-56   Lon=211.2
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-25
202252512U41º15713287Reentered!
Lat=32.2   Lon=10.3
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-29
202252393U97º26813689Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-30
202252316U53º23121689Forecast
2022-050B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-30
202252510U41º25721189Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-31
202252314U53º23622089Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-2
202252315U53º24322589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-4
202252387U53º25724089Forecast
RSP-01
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-7
199847925U52º29128490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-8
202252386U53º26824990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-9
202252384U53º27625590Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-9
199845258U52º27626790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-11
202252385U53º27725690Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-11
199844306U52º27426690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-12
202252507U53º27926690Forecast
GT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
199851510U52º33031791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
202252506U53º28127090Forecast
DESCENT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-14
199846927U52º29228690Forecast
STARLINK-3979
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-15
202252608U53º35135092Forecast
STARLINK-1809
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-15
202046708U53º29628190Forecast
SPOC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-16
199846921U52º30630191Forecast
STARLINK-2306
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-16
202147988U53º29528690Forecast
STARLINK-2023
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-17
202147605U53º29628990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
202252505U53º28927290Forecast
NEUTRON-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
199846923U52º30830391Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-18
202252596U53º29427790Forecast
STARLINK-3991
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-19
202252641U53º35135092Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-19
202252654U53º29428290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-20
202252597U53º29227990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252504U53º29227690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252595U53º29728390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-21
202252653U53º29628290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-23
202252652U53º30228490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-23
202252712U53º30228590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-24
202252711U53º30228890Forecast
TSURU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-25
199847927U52º32431891Forecast
MAYA-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-25
199847929U52º32031491Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-26
202252651U53º30428690Forecast
GUARANISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-26
199847931U52º31931291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-26
202252710U53º30828990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-27
202252589U53º30228590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-29
202252709U53º30929191Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-1
199844303U52º30630191Forecast
STARLINK-1214
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-2
202045224U53º29829390Forecast
STARLINK-3303
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-3
202150162U53º34133991Forecast
RED-EYE 1 (PINOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-12
199844364U52º31630891Forecast
STARLINK-2239
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-15
202148017U53º33232791Forecast
STARLINK-1514
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-17
202046046U53º34133291Forecast
AEROCUBE 7B (OCSD B)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-17
201743042U52º34833891Forecast
BREEZE-KM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-17
201339454U88º29829490Forecast
DAILI
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-22
199851443U52º33932591Forecast
SIMPL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-22
199842983U52º29729090Forecast
PROPCUBE 2 (FAUNA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-26
201743052U52º34533691Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-31
201843600U97º31530591Forecast
STARLINK-3307
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-1
202150164U53º32230591Forecast
STARLINK-3826
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-7
202252347U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3785
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-9
202252375U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3818
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-10
202252340U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3812
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-10
202252346U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3806
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-12
202252378U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3857
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-14
202252494U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3550
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-17
202252373U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3907
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-19
202252501U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-1874
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-20
202047159U53º30330091Forecast
STARLINK-3842
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-21
202252481U53º35134892Forecast
ISS DEB (SEDA-AP)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-22
199843870U52º32932391Forecast
STARLINK-1367
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-22
202045539U53º34333091Forecast
STARLINK-3531
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-26
202251723U53º34733691Forecast
SORTIE
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-28
199845264U52º34834091Forecast
STARLINK-3793
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-28
202252380U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3754
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-28
202252350U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3852
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-29
202252345U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3820
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-29
202252364U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3808
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-30
202252366U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3837
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-30
202252358U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3841
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-08-31
202252369U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3838
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-1
202252352U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-1
202252359U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2080
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-3
202147365U53º33632091Forecast
STARLINK-3830
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-7
202252363U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3913
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-18
202252485U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3834
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-20
202252368U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3933
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-24
202252538U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3969
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-27
202252551U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3937
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-28
202252542U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3964
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
202252536U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3939
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-30
202252545U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3537
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-1
202252088U53º33432791Forecast
STARLINK-3864
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-11
202252468U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3966
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
202252552U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3762
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202252374U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3923
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202252489U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3912
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-30
202252502U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3925
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-2
202252498U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3827
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-29
202252370U53º35134992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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