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The space junk FALCON 9 DEB is forecast to reentry Thursday, 06 Oct 2022 at 00:41 UTC +/- 8 hours
FALCON 9 DEB

Forecast for FALCON 9 DEB Reentry


Update Thu 6-Oct-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FALCON 9 DEB (53512U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 06 Oct 2022 at 00:41 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-24
202253880U52º14013687Reentered!
Lat=-24.3   Lon=0.9
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-09-28
202253816U98º18112488Reentered!
Lat=58.4   Lon=70.5
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-2
202253103U40º15713987Reentered!
Lat=37.6   Lon=276.1
2022-122B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202253956U137º18616688Reentered!
Forecast
TES-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202253957U137º17315888Reentered!
Forecast
2022-122D
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-3
202253958U137º21417788Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253875U53º17616088Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253511U98º14412787Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253872U53º17815888Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253874U53º18416488Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-5
202253873U53º19216888Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253512U98º14612887Forecast
TIS SERENITY
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
202253955U137º23719689Forecast
PEGASUS R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-6
200832766U13º27324490Forecast
FIREFLY ALPHA R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-7
202253959U137º19917688Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-10
202253941U53º26620589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-10
202253939U53º27220989Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-10
202253938U53º27720889Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-11
202253940U53º26720789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-11
202253756U53º24823589Forecast
RAMSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-12
199848850U52º25724690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202253751U53º25624590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202253696U98º26024490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-13
202253753U53º25924790Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-14
202149054U37º29624890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202253697U98º26124790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-15
202253755U53º25724690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-17
202253752U53º27025990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-18
202253694U98º27526190Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-19
202253695U98º27326190Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-21
202253808U53º29828790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-6
202253809U53º30930191Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-9
202253810U53º30929891Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-9
202253811U53º31430691Forecast
SHERPA-LTC2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-17
202253754U53º29428290Forecast
1998-067TD
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-18
199851441U52º33933091Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-22
202253812U53º31830791Forecast
PATCOOL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-29
199851442U52º33933191Forecast
RED-EYE 3 (CABERNET)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-1
199845809U52º31931391Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-1
199848833U52º33733391Forecast
RED-EYE 2 (MERLOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-2
199845800U52º31931391Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-7
201843600U97º31630391Forecast
ERBS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-3
198415354U57º34234191Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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