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The space junk FALCON 9 DEB is forecast to reentry Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 04:22 UTC +/- 8 hours
FALCON 9 DEB

Forecast for FALCON 9 DEB Reentry


Update Thu 2-Jul-2020 20:27 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FALCON 9 DEB (45798U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 19 Jul 2020 at 04:22 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201238105U4729611289Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-23
202045799U5323917389Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-4
201944210U9720517688Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-7
202045719U5325119289Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8
202045729U9839216790Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8
202045604U9848514691Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
202045718U5326219589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
202045717U5326919489Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11
202045720U5326619689Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
202045798U5331220290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-20
202045793U5331820290Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-21
201944799U9824322189Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-27
202045791U5332720690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-30
202045792U5332620790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-2
202045853U5333220690Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-3
201843658U6735919890Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-1
201339482U243860136127Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
199843598U5230329791Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-18
199843597U5231030591Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-28
199221941U41710169104Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-15
201944832U9734231091Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-25
200833415U248303135181Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-1
199843554U5231631391Forecast
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-5
201944830U9734831491Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-7
201843230U276606133160Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-11
201843451U2734116123597Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-13
201541195U235188141143Forecast
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-21
201641868U4328626690Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-21
199843551U5232432191Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-2
201944825U9736231691Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-4
201944500U4540628491Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-19
201843588U275307146144Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-22
200732261U401775181105Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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