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The space junk SL-4 R/B is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 04:45 UTC +/- 8 hours
SL-4 R/B

Forecast for SL-4 R/B Reentry


Update Mon 25-May-2020 20:42 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SL-4 R/B (45596U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 04:45 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-28
202045596U5215114687Reentered!
Lat=38.4   Lon=344.5
CZ-5B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-11
202045601U4115611787Reentered!
Lat=20   Lon=340.4
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-20
202045593U5316715988Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-21
202045592U5316315588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-22
202045591U5318416588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-24
202045594U5319817588Reentered!
Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
200227376U8623620689Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
199843680U5225124389Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-12
201238105U471940133106Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
199843466U5226826290Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-1
201944210U9730423790Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
202045604U9883016195Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-12
201944799U9828625390Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-25
199843598U5231931791Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-7
201339482U245006137140Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-7
201843658U6742320591Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-13
199843597U5232432191Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-2
199221941U42032171107Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-8
199843554U5232932591Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-9
201541195U236123141154Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-14
201944500U4542428792Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-14
201944494U2919649131344Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-16
201944832U9735432191Forecast
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-18
201944830U9735832391Forecast
CUBERRT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-23
199843546U5235334992Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-27
201843230U277984136177Forecast
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-2
201641868U4329527690Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-7
199843551U5233433091Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-9
201944844U9791320296Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-15
200833415U249834137201Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-10
201944825U9737132291Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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