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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Fri 22-May-2020 12:26 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-28
202045596U5215114687Reentered!
Lat=38.4   Lon=344.5
CZ-5B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-11
202045601U4115611787Reentered!
Lat=20   Lon=340.4
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-20
202045593U5316715988Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-21
202045592U5316315588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-22
202045591U5318416588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-24
202045594U5321118188Reentered!
Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
200227376U8625321889Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
199843680U5225424790Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-11
201238105U472031133107Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-15
199843466U5227126690Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-28
202045604U9885616195Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-1
201944210U9730923990Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-13
201944799U9829025490Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
199843598U5232131891Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
201339482U245069137141Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-10
199843597U5232532291Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-10
201843658U6742620591Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-18
199221941U42056171108Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-21
201944494U2919980130349Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-6
201541195U236205141155Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-11
199843554U5233032591Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-19
201944500U4542628892Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-20
201944832U9735632291Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-22
201843230U278085136178Forecast
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-27
201944830U9735932491Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-2
201944844U9792020296Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-6
199843551U5233533191Forecast
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-8
201641868U4329627690Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-24
201944825U9737232291Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-27
200833415U249945136202Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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