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The space junk FALCON 9 DEB is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 10 Mar 2020 at 21:02 UTC +/- 8 hours
FALCON 9 DEB

Forecast for FALCON 9 DEB Reentry


Update Mon 6-Apr-2020 9:33 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FALCON 9 DEB (44974U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 10 Mar 2020 at 21:02 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202044974U5317216988Reentered!
Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-11
198920362U3614614487Reentered!
Lat=-27.8   Lon=337.4
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
201944372U4517416388Reentered!
Lat=35.2   Lon=22.6
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
201641902U9814713687Reentered!
Lat=35.3   Lon=352.1
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
202045107U5322120989Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045106U5314113387Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
202045104U5317115988Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202045105U5317416288Reentered!
Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-5
199841463U5217016888Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1151
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045081U5343142693Forecast
STARLINK-1291
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045393U5336736592Forecast
STARLINK-1272
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045386U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-1292
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045394U5337036592Forecast
STARLINK-1260
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045404U5337036592Forecast
STARLINK-1207
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045380U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-1278
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045408U5337136692Forecast
STARLINK-1174
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045075U5343342893Forecast
STARLINK-1307
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045397U5337136692Forecast
STARLINK-1265
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045406U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-1303
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045396U5337036592Forecast
STARLINK-1275
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045407U5337036592Forecast
STARLINK-1263
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045405U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-1160
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045082U5344043593Forecast
STARLINK-1132
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045044U5345645194Forecast
STARLINK-1264
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045382U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-1268
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045385U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
201944274U5339939793Forecast
STARLINK-1298
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045413U5336936492Forecast
STARLINK-1311
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045363U5337036592Forecast
STARLINK-1182
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045077U5343843293Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
199843550U5221619989Forecast
STARLINK-1289
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045391U5336836392Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
201944270U5339239092Forecast
STARLINK-1284
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045390U5336836292Forecast
STARLINK-1312
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045398U5336836492Forecast
STARLINK-1258
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045381U5336836292Forecast
STARLINK-1319
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045379U5339138792Forecast
STARLINK-1299
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045418U5336736592Forecast
STARLINK-1285
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045410U5336736292Forecast
STARLINK-1168
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045072U5343643193Forecast
STARLINK-1213
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045400U5336736292Forecast
STARLINK-1316
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045415U5336636192Forecast
STARLINK-1172
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045074U5343943393Forecast
STARLINK-1305
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045377U5339238892Forecast
STARLINK-1153
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045080U5343543093Forecast
STARLINK-1276
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045368U5339238892Forecast
STARLINK-1255
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045399U5337136892Forecast
STARLINK-1228
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045188U5335033891Forecast
STARLINK-1267
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045384U5336436292Forecast
STARLINK-1300
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045374U5339238992Forecast
STARLINK-1180
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045076U5343642693Forecast
STARLINK-1274
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045387U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1318
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045416U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1309
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045414U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1295
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045373U5339238992Forecast
STARLINK-1310
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045378U5339038592Forecast
STARLINK-1290
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045392U5336936692Forecast
STARLINK-1301
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045361U5333933091Forecast
STARLINK-1133
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045064U5343242793Forecast
STARLINK-1287
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045371U5339239092Forecast
STARLINK-1288
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045372U5339238992Forecast
STARLINK-1283
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045389U5329328890Forecast
STARLINK-1297
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045395U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1302
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045375U5339339192Forecast
STARLINK-1273
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045367U5339339192Forecast
STARLINK-1282
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045409U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1306
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045362U5337837692Forecast
STARLINK-1293
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045411U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1150
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045067U5345144794Forecast
STARLINK-1259
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045403U5336636392Forecast
STARLINK-1257
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045402U5336536392Forecast
STARLINK-1280
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045388U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1308
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045419U5338838492Forecast
STARLINK-1164
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045070U5343543293Forecast
STARLINK-1163
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045069U5345945494Forecast
STARLINK-1296
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045412U5336836592Forecast
STARLINK-1256
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045401U5336736592Forecast
STARLINK-1209
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045206U5336636192Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
201944707U9820917488Forecast
STARLINK-1145
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045066U5343643493Forecast
STARLINK-1161
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202045068U5343743593Forecast
STARLINK-1167
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
202045071U5345645294Forecast
STARLINK-1177
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
202045078U5345545194Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944720U5353752395Forecast
STARLINK-1170
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
202045073U5347046894Forecast
STARLINK-1139
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
202045065U5342942793Forecast
STARLINK-1149
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-11
202045079U5347346994Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
202045423U5330219890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
202045420U5331319990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
202045421U5330919990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-15
202045422U5330319890Forecast
STARLINK-1281
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-15
202045370U5337337292Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
201944248U5340340293Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-21
201742800U9826121589Forecast
STARLINK-1277
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
202045369U5336836692Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
199844032U5229027990Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
199842726U5227126190Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-28
199843020U5227126490Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-20
200227376U8637525291Forecast
STARLINK-1304
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
202045376U5337136992Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
199843680U5231530991Forecast
STARLINK-1176
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
202045090U5338137992Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-7
199843466U5231230791Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-11
201944278U5329928890Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-23
201944210U9736725291Forecast
STARLINK-1147
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-24
202045095U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1184
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-24
202045098U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1032
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-30
201944737U5355054996Forecast
STARLINK-1047
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-1
201944752U5355054996Forecast
STARLINK-1186
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-4
202045099U5338437692Forecast
STARLINK-1240
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-7
202045194U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11
201944288U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1183
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-13
202045088U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-13
201944745U5332131691Forecast
STARLINK-51
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
201944272U5353052995Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-20
201238105U473478136123Forecast
STARLINK-1146
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-22
202045094U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1049
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-23
201944754U5355154996Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-23
201944799U9832027190Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25
201944283U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1286
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1
202045417U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1185
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1
202045087U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1233
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-11
202045214U5338637492Forecast
STARLINK-1247
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-12
202045236U5338137992Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-12
201843658U6748321291Forecast
STARLINK-1229
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-13
202045231U5338137992Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-14
199843598U5233833491Forecast
STARLINK-1199
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-14
202045201U5338537492Forecast
STARLINK-1208
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-15
202045205U5338637492Forecast
STARLINK-1191
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-17
202045222U5338537592Forecast
STARLINK-1226
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-17
202045229U5338137892Forecast
STARLINK-1205
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-18
202045184U5338137992Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-21
199843597U5234133791Forecast
STARLINK-1193
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-23
202045100U5338637492Forecast
STARLINK-1194
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-25
202045101U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1137
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-26
202045092U5338137992Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-30
201944500U4545429192Forecast
ONEWEB-0031
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-1
202045431U8746943694Forecast
ONEWEB-0027
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-1
202045432U8746943794Forecast
ONEWEB-0064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-1
202045433U8746943894Forecast
ONEWEB-0083
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-1
202045435U8746944094Forecast
STARLINK-1196
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045103U5338137992Forecast
ONEWEB-0061
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045428U8746843494Forecast
ONEWEB-0018
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045434U8746944094Forecast
STARLINK-1152
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045096U5338137992Forecast
ONEWEB-0090
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045427U8746843394Forecast
ONEWEB-0092
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045437U8747044194Forecast
ONEWEB-0080
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
202045426U8746743394Forecast
ONEWEB-0067
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-3
202045425U8746443394Forecast
ONEWEB-0042
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
202045441U8747244294Forecast
ONEWEB-0093
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
202045444U8747544194Forecast
ONEWEB-0029
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
202045445U8747644194Forecast
ONEWEB-0068
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-5
202045446U8747744294Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-5
201541195U237414139170Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-5
199221941U42466173112Forecast
ONEWEB-0046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-6
202045447U8747744294Forecast
ONEWEB-0088
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-7
202045457U8747844894Forecast
ONEWEB-0086
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-8
202045456U8747844894Forecast
ONEWEB-0094
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-8
202045450U8747844494Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
199843554U5234333791Forecast
ONEWEB-0087
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
202045451U8747844594Forecast
ONEWEB-0060
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
202045455U8747844794Forecast
ONEWEB-0034
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
202045454U8747844794Forecast
STARLINK-1120
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-10
202045045U5355655496Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-13
201944832U9737433092Forecast
STARLINK-1179
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-13
202045085U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1173
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-15
202045084U5338137992Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-15
201944494U2928644129496Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-16
199843551U5234734091Forecast
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-18
201641868U4330528890Forecast
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-24
201944830U9737733192Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-2
201339482U246497136158Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-2
201944743U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1203
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-4
202045202U5356055996Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-5
201944746U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-5
201944768U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1043
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-7
201944748U5355054996Forecast
STARLINK-1243
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-9
202045234U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1187
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-15
202045219U5338537492Forecast
STARLINK-1200
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-15
202045181U5355154996Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-19
200732261U402153183109Forecast
STARLINK-32
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-21
201944254U5353152995Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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