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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sun 19-Jan-2020 18:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-18
202045025U8644211690Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-21
201741912U2760512892Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
200832477U4121319989Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-24
201944236U5350550295Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-24
201944277U5350650495Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944286U5350850595Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944256U5349649395Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944247U5346846694Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944255U5346646494Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
201944268U5346446294Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
201944275U5349849595Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-28
201944248U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1068
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944772U5344844694Forecast
STARLINK-1060
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944765U5344944694Forecast
STARLINK-1020
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944725U5344944794Forecast
STARLINK-1057
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944762U5344744594Forecast
STARLINK-1030
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944735U5344944794Forecast
STARLINK-1034
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944757U5344744594Forecast
STARLINK-1059
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944764U5344644493Forecast
STARLINK-1052
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944739U5345044894Forecast
STARLINK-1047
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944752U5344544393Forecast
STARLINK-1036
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944741U5344444293Forecast
STARLINK-1037
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944742U5344644493Forecast
STARLINK-1032
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944737U5344444193Forecast
STARLINK-1031
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944736U5344344093Forecast
STARLINK-1024
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944729U5344344093Forecast
STARLINK-1033
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944738U5345144994Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944713U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944728U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-3
201944246U5331622490Forecast
STARLINK-1010
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-4
201944716U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1035
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-4
201944740U5341040893Forecast
STARLINK-1027
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944732U5341140993Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944723U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944756U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944719U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944718U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-61
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944249U5351951095Forecast
STARLINK-1044
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944749U5345345194Forecast
STARLINK-35
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
201944264U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1077
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
202044960U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1075
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044958U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1090
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044968U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-19
201944265U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1095
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-21
202044971U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1092
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-21
202044969U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1086
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-21
202044964U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1073
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
202044914U5335735692Forecast
STARLINK-1112
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
202044925U5335835792Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
201944837U9856618192Forecast
STARLINK-1121
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
202044929U5335835692Forecast
STARLINK-1080
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
202044961U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1091
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
202044940U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK-1089
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
202044967U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK-1106
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
202044923U5335835692Forecast
STARLINK-1111
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-25
202044924U5335735592Forecast
STARLINK-1079
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
202044937U5334834791Forecast
STARLINK-1109
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
202044945U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK-1102
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
202044920U5335735592Forecast
STARLINK-1069
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
202044955U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK-1115
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
202044973U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1118
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
202044948U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK-1117
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
202044952U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
201944263U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1116
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
202044947U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK-1072
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
202044935U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK-1103
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202044921U5335635492Forecast
STARLINK-1076
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202044959U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944722U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-1101
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
202044919U5335635592Forecast
STARLINK-1078
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
202044936U5334834791Forecast
STARLINK-1094
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
202044941U5334834791Forecast
STARLINK-44
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
201944261U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1070
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
202044956U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK-1108
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
202044944U5334834791Forecast
STARLINK-23
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
201944237U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1084
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044915U5335034892Forecast
STARLINK-1123
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044930U5335435392Forecast
STARLINK-1098
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044917U5335435292Forecast
STARLINK-1130 (DARKSAT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044932U5335034892Forecast
STARLINK-30
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
201944244U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1110
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
202044946U5334834791Forecast
STARLINK-1093
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
202044970U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1099
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044918U5335535392Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944768U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044916U5335535392Forecast
STARLINK-1087
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044965U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1126
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044951U5334934791Forecast
STARLINK-1114
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044927U5334934892Forecast
STARLINK-1104
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044922U5335535492Forecast
STARLINK-1085
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202044963U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK-1081
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202044962U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK-1128
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202044931U5334834791Forecast
STARLINK-1144
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202044933U5335635492Forecast
STARLINK-1083
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202044939U5334934791Forecast
STARLINK-1055
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-11
201944760U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1074
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202044957U5334734691Forecast
STARLINK-1066
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202044954U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK-1125
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202044950U5334934792Forecast
STARLINK-1082
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202044938U5334934791Forecast
STARLINK-1119
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202044928U5334934892Forecast
STARLINK-1122
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202044949U5334934791Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
201944278U5332029191Forecast
STARLINK-1029
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944734U5338438292Forecast
STARLINK-50
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
201944285U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-17
201944746U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1113
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-17
202044926U5334934791Forecast
STARLINK-40
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-18
201944258U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
201944753U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1067
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
201944771U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
201944750U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-26
201944724U5335534592Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-26
201944284U5353152995Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
199843468U5230429991Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
201944283U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202044977U5327926990Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
201944292U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-59
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
201944271U5353152995Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
198920362U3630127990Forecast
STARLINK-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-5
201944245U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1022
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-5
201944727U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
201944280U5353152995Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-11
201944372U4534226791Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-13
201944274U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-1096
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202044942U5334934591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202044976U5327927290Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
201944707U9841222191Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
201944730U5335434592Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-26
201944267U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-28
202044974U5328327390Forecast
STARLINK-54
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
201944266U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-4
201944270U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-5
201944276U5353152995Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-5
201641902U9833523990Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-11
199843550U5232532391Forecast
STARLINK-45
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-16
201944260U5353152995Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-16
199841463U5228528290Forecast
STARLINK-1049
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-18
201944754U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1107
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-20
202044972U5334834691Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-25
201742800U9835725091Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
201944720U5335334792Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
199843020U5231931791Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
199844032U5234734591Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-4
201944745U5334433891Forecast
STARLINK-1088
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-6
202044966U5334834591Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-8
201944281U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-77
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-9
201944291U5353052995Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-11
199842726U5231731591Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-17
201944241U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-20
201944294U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-1
201944287U5353152995Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-12
200227376U8644526492Forecast
STARLINK-1071
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-13
202044934U5335034591Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-22
201238105U475435141146Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
201843230U2712758135241Forecast
STARLINK-49
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
201944262U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-39
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-29
201944253U5353152995Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-30
199843680U5234534491Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-4
201944715U5335134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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