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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Fri 17-Jan-2020 22:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-17
202045025U8675112493Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-22
201944256U5350250095Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-22
201944236U5351150895Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-22
201944275U5350149995Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-22
201741912U2776413094Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201944247U5347447294Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201944255U5347247094Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201944268U5347046894Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201944286U5351451195Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201944277U5351250995Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
200832477U4122320989Forecast
STARLINK-61
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201944249U5352151195Forecast
STARLINK-1088
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
202044966U5333833291Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944248U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-1075
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
202044958U5333733391Forecast
STARLINK-1096
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
202044942U5333833391Forecast
STARLINK-1100
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
202044943U5333933491Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-27
201944267U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-27
201944281U5352952795Forecast
STARLINK-1107
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-28
202044972U5333733391Forecast
STARLINK-1076
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-28
202044959U5333733391Forecast
STARLINK-1071
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-28
202044934U5333833491Forecast
STARLINK-1092
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-28
202044969U5333533591Forecast
STARLINK-1117
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-29
202044952U5333633291Forecast
STARLINK-1091
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-29
202044940U5333733391Forecast
STARLINK-1044
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
201944749U5344144093Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944723U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1113
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
202044926U5333733491Forecast
STARLINK-1036
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944741U5343243093Forecast
STARLINK-1032
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944737U5343242993Forecast
STARLINK-1033
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944738U5343943793Forecast
STARLINK-1037
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944742U5343443293Forecast
STARLINK-1024
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944729U5343142893Forecast
STARLINK-1011
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944717U5343243093Forecast
STARLINK-1059
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944764U5343543293Forecast
STARLINK-1052
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944739U5343843693Forecast
STARLINK-1057
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-3
201944762U5343543393Forecast
STARLINK-1031
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-3
201944736U5343042893Forecast
STARLINK-1047
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-4
201944752U5343343193Forecast
STARLINK-1114
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-4
202044927U5333833691Forecast
STARLINK-1020
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-4
201944725U5343743593Forecast
STARLINK-1030
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201944735U5343743593Forecast
STARLINK-1068
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201944772U5343643393Forecast
STARLINK-1034
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201944757U5343543393Forecast
STARLINK-1060
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201944765U5343743493Forecast
STARLINK-1104
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
202044922U5334334291Forecast
STARLINK-1027
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944732U5339939793Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944756U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1010
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944716U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944265U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944284U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1069
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
202044955U5333533391Forecast
STARLINK-1066
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
202044954U5333533391Forecast
STARLINK-1070
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
202044956U5333533391Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944722U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1119
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
202044928U5333833591Forecast
STARLINK-1095
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
202044971U5333533391Forecast
STARLINK-1077
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
202044960U5333533491Forecast
STARLINK-1087
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
202044965U5333533491Forecast
STARLINK-1080
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
202044961U5333633491Forecast
STARLINK-1074
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
202044957U5333533491Forecast
STARLINK-1090
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
202044968U5333633491Forecast
STARLINK-1116
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
202044947U5333633591Forecast
STARLINK-1115
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
202044973U5333633491Forecast
STARLINK-1093
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
202044970U5333533491Forecast
STARLINK-1094
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
202044941U5333633591Forecast
STARLINK-1072
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
202044935U5333633491Forecast
STARLINK-1118
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
202044948U5333633591Forecast
STARLINK-59
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
201944271U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1122
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044949U5333733591Forecast
STARLINK-1078
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044936U5333733591Forecast
STARLINK-1126
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044951U5333733591Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
201944715U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1109
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044945U5333633491Forecast
STARLINK-1089
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
202044967U5333633491Forecast
STARLINK-1079
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-19
202044937U5333633591Forecast
STARLINK-74
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-19
201944293U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-50
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944285U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-1108
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
202044944U5333733591Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944837U9857618192Forecast
STARLINK-1125
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
202044950U5333733591Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944719U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1061
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944766U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944283U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-21
201944746U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1110
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
202044946U5333733591Forecast
STARLINK-1054
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-25
201944759U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1062
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-25
201944767U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1039
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-25
201944744U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1053
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944758U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1067
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944771U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944750U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
201944720U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-1098
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
202044917U5334234091Forecast
STARLINK-1123
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
202044930U5334234191Forecast
STARLINK-1099
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202044918U5334334191Forecast
STARLINK-1106
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202044923U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK-1112
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202044925U5334634591Forecast
STARLINK-1022
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944727U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
201944768U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1049
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
201944754U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1103
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
202044921U5334434291Forecast
STARLINK-1046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
201944751U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1111
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
202044924U5334534391Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
201944289U5350950595Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
201944743U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1121
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
202044929U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK-1073
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
202044914U5334534491Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
202044916U5334334191Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
201944263U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1102
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044920U5334534391Forecast
STARLINK-1058
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
201944763U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1144
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044933U5334434291Forecast
STARLINK-1050
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
201944755U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944246U5331422390Forecast
STARLINK-1101
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202044919U5334434391Forecast
STARLINK-1028
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
201944733U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-11
201944730U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-1056
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
201944761U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1042
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
201944747U5355154896Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
199843468U5230530091Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-18
201944724U5335534492Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-18
201944240U5344744493Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
201944769U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
201944713U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-30
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
201944244U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1124
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
202044953U5329228190Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
198920362U3630228090Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
201944753U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1055
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-26
201944760U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
201944728U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-1008
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-30
201944714U5335234792Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-2
201944372U4534426891Forecast
STARLINK-1043
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-3
201944748U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1065
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
201944770U5355154996Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944707U9841422091Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-12
201944278U5332029191Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-17
201944280U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
201944718U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
201944292U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1015
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
201944721U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-1026
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
201944731U5335234792Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-30
199843550U5232632491Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-30
199841463U5228528390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-6
202044976U5328027290Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-7
201944241U5353152995Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-9
201641902U9833623990Forecast
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-12
201944276U5353152995Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-14
199843020U5232031791Forecast
STARLINK-77
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-14
201944291U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-19
202044977U5328027090Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-23
201742800U9835825091Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-24
199844032U5234734691Forecast
STARLINK-31
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-27
201944235U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-44
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-28
201944261U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-29
201944294U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
201944270U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-3
201944745U5334433991Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-6
199842726U5231831691Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201944288U5353052995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-16
202044974U5328527490Forecast
STARLINK-25
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-18
201944239U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-21
201944274U5353152895Forecast
2019-093A
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-24
201944879U9863661497Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-27
200227376U8644626492Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-28
201944252U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-57
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-29
201944269U5353152995Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8
199843680U5234634491Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
201843230U2712861135242Forecast
STARLINK-1021
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
201944726U5335234892Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
201238105U475471141146Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-26
199843466U5233933791Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-29
201944210U9841826291Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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