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The space junk OCULUS-ASR SPHERE 1 is forecast to reentry Monday, 12 Aug 2019 at 18:04 UTC +/- 8 hours
OCULUS-ASR SPHERE 1

Forecast for OCULUS-ASR SPHERE 1 Reentry


Update Fri 19-Jul-2019 14:06 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk OCULUS-ASR SPHERE 1 (44376U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 12 Aug 2019 at 18:04 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-3
201943921U27141494100Reentered!
Lat=26.8   Lon=278
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-5
201843604U5555310591Reentered!
Lat=-5.1   Lon=118.9
BANXING-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-15
201641834U4312911387Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-19
201843583U551488101101Forecast
NJUST-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-21
199842722U5220619388Forecast
DELTA 4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-22
201540747U232458687425Forecast
IRIDIUM 61 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-23
199825263U8638015890Forecast
EPSILON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-10
201943939U9736419890Forecast
OCULUS-ASR SPHERE 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-12
201944376U2970230695Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-22
200833113U4712558124238Forecast
TIANGONG-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-31
201641765U4337618590Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-09-28
200832712U4089117195Forecast
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201741938U239441135196Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-13
201641325U558288123181Forecast
STARLINK M
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944246U040835792Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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