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The space junk ELECTRON R/B is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 01 Apr 2020 at 10:03 UTC +/- 8 hours
ELECTRON R/B

Forecast for ELECTRON R/B Reentry


Update Sat 18-Jan-2020 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk ELECTRON R/B (44372U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 01 Apr 2020 at 10:03 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-18
202045025U8644211690Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
201741912U2776013193Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
200832477U4122120889Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
201944286U5351351095Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-27
201944255U5347146994Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-27
201944268U5346946794Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-27
201944277U5351050995Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-28
201944247U5347347194Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-29
201944236U5350950795Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-2
201944256U5350049895Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201944246U5331522390Forecast
STARLINK-1113
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
202044926U5333733491Forecast
STARLINK-1114
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
202044927U5333833691Forecast
STARLINK-1119
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
202044928U5333833591Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944275U5350049895Forecast
STARLINK-61
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944249U5352151095Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944837U9857618192Forecast
STARLINK-1008
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
201944714U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
201944723U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1049
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944754U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944720U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944753U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1026
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944731U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944718U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
201944756U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
201944713U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1021
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
201944726U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
201944267U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1128
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044931U5333633591Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944730U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944724U5335534492Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-8
201944722U5335234792Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202044977U5328027090Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
201944728U5335434592Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944719U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1010
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
201944716U5335234892Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-17
199843468U5230530091Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-18
201944715U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1028
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-18
201944733U5335234892Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-26
198920362U3630228090Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-1
201944372U4534326891Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944707U9841422091Forecast
STARLINK-1015
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
201944721U5335234792Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-21
202044974U5328527390Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
201641902U9833623990Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-1
199843550U5232632491Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
199841463U5228528390Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-4
201944294U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-5
201944263U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-59
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-8
201944271U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-14
202044976U5328027290Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-15
199843020U5232031791Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-18
201742800U9835725091Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-26
199844032U5234734691Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-29
201944279U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-2
201944745U5334433991Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-5
199842726U5231831691Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-21
201944248U5353052895Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-24
201944284U5353152995Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-27
200227376U8644626492Forecast
STARLINK-1035
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-2
201944740U5340039893Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-7
201843230U2712833135242Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11
201944283U5353152995Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-14
199843680U5234534491Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
201238105U475469141146Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
201944278U5332029191Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
199843466U5233933791Forecast
STARLINK-37
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1
201944251U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-3
201944241U5353152995Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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