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The space junk ELECTRON R/B is forecast to reentry Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 08:23 UTC +/- 8 hours
ELECTRON R/B

Forecast for ELECTRON R/B Reentry


Update Thu 26-Mar-2020 13:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk ELECTRON R/B (44372U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 08:23 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
201944837U9716412887Reentered!
Lat=-6.7   Lon=106.3
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
199843468U5219319088Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202045242U5319515488Reentered!
Lat=46.2   Lon=223.4
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202044974U5317216988Reentered!
Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-11
198920362U3614614487Reentered!
Lat=-27.8   Lon=337.4
DRAGON CRS-20 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-13
202045343U5221216888Reentered!
Lat=-35.4   Lon=179.9
DRAGON CRS-20 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
202045342U5217615188Reentered!
Lat=-30.1   Lon=200.7
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
201944372U4517416388Reentered!
Lat=35.2   Lon=22.6
STARLINK-1142
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
202045093U5338537692Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
202045239U5316514988Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
201641902U9814713687Reentered!
Lat=35.3   Lon=352.1
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
202045107U5322120989Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
202045240U5316314788Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1193
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-23
202045100U5338637592Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1161
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-23
202045068U5338138092Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-23
202045241U5320516988Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045238U5315814187Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045106U5323422389Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1133
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-26
202045064U5338437592Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1129
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
202045046U5355255196Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1139
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202045065U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-1182
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202045077U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1134
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202045048U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1181
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
202045086U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1167
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-30
202045071U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1163
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-30
202045069U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1136
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202045089U5338137992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202045104U5324723489Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202045105U5324723389Forecast
STARLINK-1185
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202045087U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-1168
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-2
202045072U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1150
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-2
202045067U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1153
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
202045080U5338038092Forecast
STARLINK-1118
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
202044948U5325024990Forecast
STARLINK-1147
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-5
202045095U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-5
201944277U5339038292Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-6
201944243U5340239092Forecast
STARLINK-1151
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-6
202045081U5338237792Forecast
STARLINK-1137
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045092U5338037992Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
199841463U5223322589Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
201944247U5339639592Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
201944255U5339639592Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944275U5346045094Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944270U5345644494Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944707U9829319989Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-10
201944236U5340139092Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-10
199843550U5227126190Forecast
STARLINK-1194
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-13
202045101U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
201944724U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-52
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
201944259U5339739592Forecast
STARLINK-1236
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
202045191U5351551395Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-17
201944265U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-1176
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
202045090U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
201944753U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1232
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202045213U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1015
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
201944721U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1198
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202045200U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1180
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202045076U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
201944256U5339739492Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
201742800U9828522690Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
201944756U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1254
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-21
202045216U5338537492Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-21
201944292U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1171
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
202045062U5355655496Forecast
STARLINK-37
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
201944251U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1146
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
202045094U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-74
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
201944293U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1206
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-24
202045204U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1189
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-25
202045221U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
201944289U5350850795Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
199844032U5230729991Forecast
STARLINK-1008
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
201944714U5355154996Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-28
199843020U5228427990Forecast
STARLINK-35
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
201944264U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
201944252U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1183
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-3
202045088U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-4
201944268U5339539392Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-6
201944722U5355154996Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-8
199842726U5228427690Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-8
201944288U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1030
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-9
201944735U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1165
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-13
202045059U5355655496Forecast
STARLINK-1186
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-14
202045099U5338237792Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-17
201944240U5343743493Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-17
201944278U5330229290Forecast
STARLINK-1066
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-18
202044954U5338637492Forecast
STARLINK-1032
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-20
201944737U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1212
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-23
202045223U5338337792Forecast
STARLINK-1029
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-24
201944734U5339038392Forecast
STARLINK-1173
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-24
202045084U5338037992Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-28
200227376U8639325791Forecast
STARLINK-1201
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-29
202045182U5340439593Forecast
STARLINK-1131
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
202045047U5355655496Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
201944280U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1140
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-5
202045050U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1187
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-6
202045219U5338337792Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-7
199843680U5232331691Forecast
STARLINK-1135
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-7
202045049U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1216
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-8
202045185U5351150995Forecast
STARLINK-1035
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-10
201944740U5357156996Forecast
STARLINK-1209
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-11
202045206U5334427891Forecast
STARLINK-1120
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-16
202045045U5355555496Forecast
STARLINK-1164
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-17
202045070U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-1141
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-18
202045051U5355154896Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-19
201238105U473741136126Forecast
STARLINK-1175
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-19
202045097U5338437592Forecast
STARLINK-1231
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-20
202045212U5338137992Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-20
199843466U5231831391Forecast
STARLINK-1044
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-23
201944749U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1270
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-23
202045237U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1271
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-26
202045217U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1085
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-27
202044963U5338537592Forecast
STARLINK-1228
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-27
202045188U5334333591Forecast
STARLINK-1145
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-3
202045066U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-3
201944745U5332332091Forecast
STARLINK-1195
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-3
202045102U5338537592Forecast
STARLINK-1077
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8
202044960U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1229
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11
202045231U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-49
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-14
201944262U5353152895Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-14
201944210U9737625691Forecast
STARLINK-1034
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
201944757U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1132
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
202045044U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1214
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-21
202045224U5338437592Forecast
STARLINK-1166
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-22
202045060U5355555496Forecast
STARLINK-1179
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
202045085U5338137992Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-27
201944494U2930262132526Forecast
STARLINK-1196
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-28
202045103U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-29
201944743U5355154896Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1
201944799U9832427491Forecast
STARLINK-1115
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-3
202044973U5338537492Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-5
201944720U5350850095Forecast
STARLINK-1235
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-7
202045232U5336836692Forecast
STARLINK-1092
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-11
202044969U5338537492Forecast
STARLINK-1093
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-13
202044970U5338537492Forecast
STARLINK-1039
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-14
201944744U5355154896Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-15
201339482U246803138162Forecast
STARLINK-1020
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-16
201944725U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1086
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-17
202044964U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1169
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-17
202045061U5355655496Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-20
201843658U6749621492Forecast
STARLINK-39
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-26
201944253U5353152995Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-26
199843598U5234233791Forecast
STARLINK-1075
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-26
202044958U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1152
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-27
202045096U5338037992Forecast
STARLINK-54
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-28
201944266U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-2
201944769U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1076
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
202044959U5338537592Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
199843597U5234533991Forecast
STARLINK-1089
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
202044967U5338137992Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-5
201541195U237752139174Forecast
STARLINK-1074
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-6
202044957U5338537592Forecast
STARLINK-1158
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-6
202045056U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-8
201944281U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-1156
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
202045054U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1159
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
202045057U5355555496Forecast
STARLINK-1088
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-9
202044966U5338137992Forecast
STARLINK-1052
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-12
201944739U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-16
201944768U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-78
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-18
201944290U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-1069
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-21
202044955U5338437592Forecast
STARLINK-1247
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-21
202045236U5338137992Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-25
199843554U5234733991Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-25
201944500U4546029392Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-30
201944248U5345044894Forecast
STARLINK-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-30
201944245U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1059
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-30
201944764U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1057
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-7
201944762U5355154996Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-8
201944832U9737733392Forecast
STARLINK-1062
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-9
201944767U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-10
201944715U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1114
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-12
202044927U5355154896Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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