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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sun 13-Oct-2019 22:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-09-19
201944535U972969388Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-09-28
201944551U5215013587Reentered!
Lat=12   Lon=154.2
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-4
201641325U5528110588Reentered!
Lat=53.4   Lon=336.3
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-14
201944442U219487159197Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-10
201843709U559585111197Forecast
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-17
201741938U234984131140Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-1
201843242U2013242116247Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-6
201036591U216732125161Forecast
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-12
199842711U5229729290Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-27
200832477U4130630191Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201741912U273620145125Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944372U4541328892Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
199843468U5234434191Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
198920362U3634031291Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
199841463U5231130991Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-12
201641902U9840025391Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
199843550U5235735192Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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