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The space junk CZ-3B R/B is forecast to reentry Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 00:08 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-3B R/B

Forecast for CZ-3B R/B Reentry


Update Fri 22-Nov-2019 18:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-3B R/B (43709U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 00:08 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-28
201843709U5554510991Reentered!
Lat=-38.7   Lon=303.6
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-7
201944702U5216014588Reentered!
Lat=26.6   Lon=163.8
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-19
201741938U2234510789Reentered!
Lat=7.9   Lon=150.8
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-20
201944778U9719411688Reentered!
Lat=-12.6   Lon=97.8
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-22
201944708U9740036692Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-26
201036591U211650119103Forecast
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-7
199842711U5225625190Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-9
201843242U204993110140Forecast
STARLINK AN
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-12
201944749U5333233091Forecast
STARLINK BD
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-12
201944764U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK L
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-12
201944723U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK AW
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-12
201944757U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK AS
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-13
201944753U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-13
201944714U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK A
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-14
201944713U5334634591Forecast
STARLINK AH
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-14
201944744U5334434291Forecast
STARLINK J
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-15
201944721U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK AA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-15
201944737U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK AF
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-15
201944742U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK BH
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944768U5334334191Forecast
STARLINK H
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944720U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK F
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944718U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK T
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944730U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK D
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944716U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK W
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944733U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK AX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-16
201944758U5334133991Forecast
STARLINK V
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-17
201944732U5334534491Forecast
STARLINK P
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-17
201944726U5334534491Forecast
STARLINK BJ
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-17
201944769U5334334191Forecast
STARLINK E
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-17
201944717U5334934591Forecast
STARLINK K
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-18
201944722U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK BK
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-18
201944770U5334234091Forecast
STARLINK AQ
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-19
201944751U5334434291Forecast
STARLINK BB
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-19
201944762U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK AP
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-20
201944750U5334534391Forecast
STARLINK Y
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-20
201944735U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK AR
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-20
201944752U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK X
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-21
201944734U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK S
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-21
201944729U5334834591Forecast
STARLINK AT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-21
201944754U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK BM
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-21
201944772U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK AE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-21
201944741U5334834691Forecast
STARLINK M
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944724U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK AV
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944756U5334734591Forecast
STARLINK AC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-24
201944739U5333433391Forecast
STARLINK N
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944725U5334734591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944776U5328126890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-6
201944773U5328627290Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-6
201944774U5328627190Forecast
STARLINK AY
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944759U5334033891Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944775U5328227190Forecast
STARLINK R
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944728U5334734491Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201741912U272635144114Forecast
STARLINK AG
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-14
201944743U5334133591Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-20
200832477U4128828390Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
199843468U5233132791Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
201641902U9837824891Forecast
STARLINK AL
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944747U5334133691Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
199843550U5234634091Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
199843020U5233433291Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-8
201944372U4538528291Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
199844032U5236636092Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
200227376U8647927092Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201742800U9839225691Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
198920362U3632830191Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-2
199842726U5233532991Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
199843680U5236035492Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
199843466U5235134892Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-6
199841463U5230230091Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-26
201944278U5332930191Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-27
199843598U5236636192Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
201944707U9847422892Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
199843597U5236736292Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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