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The space junk SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1) is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 05:46 UTC +/- 8 hours
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)

Forecast for SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1) Reentry


Update Sat 9-Feb-2019 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1) (42903U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 05:46 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-17
201843129U9714213387Reentered!
Lat=27.6   Lon=230.4
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-20
201641883U2816114188Reentered!
Lat=26.8   Lon=292.6
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-28
201943945U9728111088Reentered!
Lat=-57.3   Lon=245.8
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-30
201843863U8514612287Reentered!
Lat=36.2   Lon=212.1
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-4
199842707U5217316588Reentered!
Lat=-51.5   Lon=254.9
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-5
201843667U9814113087Reentered!
Lat=-10.4   Lon=242.3
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-5
199842732U5217316488Reentered!
Lat=19.1   Lon=31.7
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-24
199724715U72885130116Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-1
199842700U5226826490Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-1
199842708U5226826290Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-2
199842704U5227126590Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
199842717U5227026590Forecast
DEBRISSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-5
199843621U5232431991Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-5
201843166U8330123990Forecast
MICROSAT-R
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-7
201943947U9730323990Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-12
199843027U5229428990Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-20
199842733U5228828490Forecast
LILACSAT-1 (LO-90)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-9
199842725U5229729790Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-10
199842727U5230129891Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-21
198920230U28129516999Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-23
201742903U4330928790Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-24
201843532U9842622191Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-7
199724905U8646924892Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-7
201743033U6751021992Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-14
199842736U5231431291Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-19
199842715U5231831691Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-19
199842820U5231831791Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-21
199842824U5232232091Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-22
199842823U5232031791Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-23
201641753U2116615125297Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-30
199842822U5232132091Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-5
199842706U5232031991Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-10
199842712U5232732691Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-17
199842713U5232532491Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-4
201843588U2716486131295Forecast
NJUST-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-16
199842722U5233533191Forecast
EPSILON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-26
201943939U9770621994Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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