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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sun 21-Apr-2019 18:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-31
199842727U5217716588Reentered!
Lat=15.7   Lon=174
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-5
201843865U195689591Reentered!
Lat=-2.2   Lon=152.5
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-6
198920230U2829114089Reentered!
Lat=-21.7   Lon=69.4
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-7
201944111U5214914687Reentered!
Lat=-50.8   Lon=328.8
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-11
201742903U4320018588Reentered!
Lat=31.6   Lon=34.2
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-15
201944075U4016814788Reentered!
Lat=19.1   Lon=231.3
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-27
199842736U5223922389Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-29
201843532U9827019089Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-2
201641753U213205112120Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-3
199842820U5225924590Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-5
199842712U5226725290Forecast
CSUNSAT1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-6
199842715U5226324990Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-8
199842823U5226725390Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-11
199724905U8633322890Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-11
199842706U5227125890Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-13
201743033U6734719990Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-13
199842822U5227426190Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-15
199842824U5227726490Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-4
199842713U5229228390Forecast
EPSILON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-10
201943939U9758921593Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-12
201843604U5513045109245Forecast
NJUST-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-18
199842722U5231330491Forecast
BANXING-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-22
201641834U4328927090Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-5
200832712U401475180101Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-26
201843583U5512937108243Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-27
201741912U276637149160Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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