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The space junk CHALLENGER is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 15 Aug 2018 at 03:54 UTC +/- 8 hours
CHALLENGER

Forecast for CHALLENGER Reentry


Update Fri 25-May-2018 22:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CHALLENGER (42721U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 15 Aug 2018 at 03:54 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-29
201843444U971489287Reentered!
Lat=-62.9   Lon=187.4
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
200227616U628238794Reentered!
Lat=-52.4   Lon=214.8
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-15
199843026U5217717188Reentered!
Lat=51.4   Lon=321.3
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
201339436U9822019689Reentered!
Lat=-63.9   Lon=121.2
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
200428476U3919014088Reentered!
Lat=-21.3   Lon=245.3
IRIDIUM 21 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
199925778U8617112887Reentered!
Lat=32.1   Lon=183.6
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-26
199724968U8616815288Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-1
199841763U5225324690Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-4
199841761U5226125490Forecast
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-5
201843475U5228519689Forecast
IRIDIUM 68 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-7
199825291U8658216792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-19
199841483U5228628190Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-27
201843202U3193317696Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-28
199841567U5229929690Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-30
199841776U5230529791Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-28
201742796U9528626990Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-15
199842721U5232731991Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-16
201641395U9832926991Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-6
201742762U4336924291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-8
201843483U8950447594Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-10
199725041U8643926092Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-6
199841933U5233232691Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-12
199842714U5234033491Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-15
199842068U5233532891Forecast
FLOCK 2E-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199841564U5232131691Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
199841762U5235634892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-31
199841769U5235835292Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-12
199841935U5233833291Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-14
199842705U5234233691Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-30
200227567U274278158132Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-1
199841764U5235935292Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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