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The space junk HOOPOE is forecast to reentry Friday, 21 Dec 2018 at 01:24 UTC +/- 8 hours
HOOPOE

Forecast for HOOPOE Reentry


Update Mon 10-Dec-2018 22:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk HOOPOE (42718U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 21 Dec 2018 at 01:24 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
201843703U5215914788Reentered!
Lat=30.1   Lon=41.5
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-28
201843705U5215814588Reentered!
Lat=49.3   Lon=42.9
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-5
199842059U5217616788Reentered!
Lat=-5.8   Lon=289.8
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-7
201843757U5214513787Reentered!
Lat=-10.4   Lon=187.8
OBJECT D
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-8
201843830U5235520390Reentered!
Forecast
DRAGON CRS-16 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-11
201843829U5218215788Forecast
DRAGON CRS-16 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-11
201843828U5222217588Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-21
199842718U5225925290Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-26
201843691U8536720290Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-29
199841932U5227026590Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-16
200227373U8639522791Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-17
201843129U9727026090Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-26
199842707U5230329891Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-27
199842732U5230529991Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-7
201641883U282381142111Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-10
199842700U5231430891Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-13
199724715U76892134163Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-13
199842704U5231531091Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-14
199842717U5231631091Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-16
199842708U5231431091Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-22
199842733U5232231591Forecast
DEBRISSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-25
199843621U5237836492Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-7
201843166U8336926391Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
199842727U5232932191Forecast
IRIDIUM 31 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-16
199724950U8662914392Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-19
199843027U5233532991Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-26
198920230U281790173105Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-2
199842725U5232931991Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-4
201742903U4333031191Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-14
199842736U5233532791Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-15
199842820U5233733391Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-16
199842715U5233633191Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-24
199842712U5234734291Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-28
199842822U5234033491Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-1
199724905U8651525792Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-5
199842713U5234133691Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-6
201743033U6757422593Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-14
199842823U5234033391Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-14
199842706U5233633391Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-29
199842824U5234233491Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-17
201843532U9849722892Forecast
BANXING-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-26
201641834U4332130491Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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