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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Fri 24-Nov-2017 14:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-3
201742802U24145380100Reentered!
Lat=-24.2   Lon=308.3
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-11
200833411U9717916988Reentered!
Lat=-65.3   Lon=259.6
IRIDIUM 8 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-24
199724792U8617512287Forecast
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-25
201743007U5220016588Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-29
199841481U5226625690Forecast
LEMUR-2-CHRIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-4
201540933U664762597Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-17
200227392U8928627490Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-18
199841571U5231030591Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-31
199841939U5232031191Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-7
199841484U5232532191Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-15
199842813U5235634792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-16
199841563U5233632891Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-24
200629053U7229628790Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-27
199841895U5234133591Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-31
199725039U8648424092Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-4
199842702U5235535092Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-6
199841578U5232131291Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-6
199841313U5231230591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-16
199841575U5232231391Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-16
199842737U5236335692Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-21
199841576U5232731891Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-23
201540881U203977140129Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-26
199842067U5235134491Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-27
201137820U4330728390Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-27
201238249U9732131091Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-10
199841573U5233132491Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-12
201339436U9842341293Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-20
199841479U5233332891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-21
199841763U5237036392Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-21
199843026U5240339993Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-22
199841565U5233432791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
199841569U5233132691Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
199841574U5233232491Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-25
199841572U5233733091Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-25
199842703U5236836292Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
199841577U5233532791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-4
199841480U5233633191Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-17
200428476U391604191103Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
199841761U5237436492Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-24
199841776U5237436892Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-25
199841486U5233933591Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-30
199725041U8657827593Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-6
199842721U5237837192Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-12
199841483U5234434091Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-15
199842068U5237236492Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-16
201741912U2724266131420Forecast
DUTHSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-19
199842724U5237837392Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-20
201641395U9840429592Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
199841568U5234633991Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
199842705U5237937592Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
201742796U9534731491Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
201742748U2230217136525Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-31
199841933U5236936392Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-2
200227391U8930929791Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-4
199842714U5238037592Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-5
199841487U5234334091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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