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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Wed 13-Dec-2017 22:13 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-25
201743007U5215313787Reentered!
Lat=51.6   Lon=253.4
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-30
199841481U5215914988Reentered!
Lat=-51.3   Lon=125.1
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-21
200227392U8924523589Forecast
IRIDIUM 6 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-22
199724794U8653316692Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-24
199841571U5227526790Forecast
IRIDIUM 34 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-29
199724969U8668717893Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-13
199841939U5230129190Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-23
199841484U5231030691Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-1
200629053U7228227890Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-1
199842813U5234333291Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
199725039U8645123591Forecast
CYGNUS OA-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
201743006U5239538492Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-11
199841563U5232331691Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-18
201540881U203484139123Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-24
199842702U5234633991Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-24
199841895U5233132591Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-25
200227391U8930029390Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841487U5233533391Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-13
199841313U5230229991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-20
199841480U5233032791Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-20
201137820U4330227590Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-24
199841578U5231130491Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-25
199842737U5235634792Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-26
199724965U8668422494Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
201741912U2721370128372Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
199842067U5234533991Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-31
201238249U9731330491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-2
199841575U5231330691Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-14
201742748U2226215130453Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
199841573U5232431891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
199841576U5231931291Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-23
199843026U5239739392Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-26
200428476U391523190102Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-1
201339436U9841640793Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-1
199842703U5236235692Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
199841761U5236935992Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-13
199841479U5232732391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-14
199841569U5232432191Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-19
199841577U5232932391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-20
199841574U5232631991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-21
199841763U5236535792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-30
199841565U5232832391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-1
199841572U5233032591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-22
199841776U5237036492Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-27
199725041U8655727693Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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