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The space junk LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS is forecast to reentry Thursday, 15 Nov 2018 at 19:09 UTC +/- 8 hours
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS

Forecast for LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS Reentry


Update Tue 22-May-2018 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS (42068U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 15 Nov 2018 at 19:09 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-29
201843444U971489287Reentered!
Lat=-62.9   Lon=187.4
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
200227616U628238794Reentered!
Lat=-52.4   Lon=214.8
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-15
199843026U5217717188Reentered!
Lat=51.4   Lon=321.3
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
201339436U9822019689Reentered!
Lat=-63.9   Lon=121.2
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
200428476U3928015689Forecast
IRIDIUM 21 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
199925778U8631016389Forecast
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-26
199724968U8627718589Forecast
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-2
201843475U5230220190Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-7
199841763U5226826290Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-7
199841761U5227226590Forecast
IRIDIUM 68 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-7
199825291U8664416993Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-18
199841483U5229128690Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-7
199841776U5230930191Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-7
199841567U5230329991Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-11
201843202U3197217696Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-6
201742796U9528926990Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-2
201641395U9833226991Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-9
199842721U5232832191Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-17
201742762U4337124391Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-24
199725041U8644226092Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-2
199842714U5234233591Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-15
199842068U5233632991Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
199841933U5233332691Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-4
201843244U9730830391Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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