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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Mon 22-Jan-2018 18:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-24
200227392U8913413187Reentered!
Lat=63.9   Lon=199.1
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-25
199841571U5218717488Reentered!
Lat=-19.5   Lon=321.9
IRIDIUM 34 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-8
199724969U8617512688Reentered!
Lat=-1.3   Lon=70
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-11
199841939U5215715588Reentered!
Lat=-11   Lon=133.6
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-16
201743093U5134814189Reentered!
Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-17
201743094U5134714789Reentered!
Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-23
199841484U5221420589Forecast
SL-23 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-27
201743090U5133115489Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-29
201743092U5150617291Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-29
201743091U5149216791Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
200629053U7223823189Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
199842813U5228928090Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-7
201742748U2111564104224Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-9
199841576U5229329090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-10
199841563U5228728190Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-12
199725039U8633522390Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
201540881U202405136111Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-22
199841572U5230830491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-28
199841578U5228628290Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199841895U5230629991Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199842702U5232231491Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-7
199841487U5231330691Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-11
199841313U5228127890Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-12
200227391U8928027090Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
199841575U5229329190Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-20
199842737U5233932991Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-8
201137820U4328726190Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-11
199724965U8660022193Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-14
199841573U5230930891Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-15
201238249U9729828990Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-19
199841479U5231431191Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-20
199842067U5233232591Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-29
199842703U5234934491Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-30
199843026U5238538092Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-1
199841574U5231131191Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-3
199841577U5231631591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-6
199841569U5231331091Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
201339436U9840239593Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-12
199841565U5231531591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-13
199841763U5235534792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
199841761U5235935092Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-31
199841480U5232031791Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-1
200428476U391331187100Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-8
199841776U5236135392Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-12
199842721U5236735892Forecast
DUTHSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-17
199842724U5236936192Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-21
201741912U2716364132293Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-27
199841486U5232632391Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-7
199842705U5237036692Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-8
199842714U5237036692Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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