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The space junk KZ-1A R/B is forecast to reentry Friday, 18 Aug 2017 at 18:01 UTC +/- 8 hours
KZ-1A R/B

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Wed 24-May-2017 14:12 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk KZ-1A R/B (41916U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 18 Aug 2017 at 18:01 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-27
200126874U8215714588Reentered!
Lat=-40.1   Lon=256.9
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-18
201742685U4316414788Reentered!
Lat=-24.6   Lon=327
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-27
201440120U9820819188Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-15
199841314U5226726090Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-25
201641595U5228928490Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-11
201641726U285626131148Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-12
199841566U5231130191Forecast
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-29
199842066U5236435992Forecast
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-7
200731116U5510745119213Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-18
201741916U9837523391Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-24
201238253U552482145112Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-4
199841936U5236336192Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-6
200629080U9830029590Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-23
199841477U5233532991Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-3
199841478U5233633091Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-25
199842697U5240439893Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-3
199841931U5237537092Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-5
199842434U5239138792Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-16
201339404U4035234091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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