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The space junk CZ-3B R/B is forecast to reentry Sunday, 04 Jun 2017 at 07:28 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-3B R/B

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sun 19-Feb-2017 14:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-3B R/B (41883U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 04 Jun 2017 at 07:28 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-23
201641910U98º18613888Reentered!
Lat=20.6   Lon=221.7
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-7
198819448U63º17512087Reentered!
Lat=-17.2   Lon=119.3
BY70-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-18
201641909U98º16013687Reentered!
Lat=-10.9   Lon=159.2
LEMUR-2-NATE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-2
201641598U52º26825890Forecast
LEMUR-2-BRIDGEMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-10
201641596U52º28828290Forecast
LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-11
201641597U52º28727990Forecast
SPINSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-15
199840314U52º25024389Forecast
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-24
199841485U52º31631191Forecast
LEMUR-2-JEFF
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-26
199841490U52º30730191Forecast
LEMUR-2-NICK-ALLAIN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-9
199841488U52º32131891Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-10
199841489U52º32231691Forecast
2017-008F
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-11
201741953U98º49849795Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-20
200126874U82º27327090Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-3
201641726U28º12603122239Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-8
199841476U52º33032791Forecast
EGG
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-31
199841934U52º40739093Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-4
201641883U28º29422154511Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-6
199841314U52º33333191Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-25
201440120U98º34027991Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-11
201641595U52º34634091Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-11
199841474U52º33633591Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-28
200629080U98º32932591Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-17
199841477U52º36035992Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-19
201238253U55º4487149135Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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