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The space junk FLOCK 2E'-14 is forecast to reentry Thursday, 25 Oct 2018 at 12:31 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E

Forecast for FLOCK 2E'-14 Reentry


Update Mon 12-Nov-2018 14:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E'-14 (41762U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 25 Oct 2018 at 12:31 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
199841762U5220519388Reentered!
Lat=17   Lon=170.9
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-28
201742985U22250771111Reentered!
Lat=-20.6   Lon=65
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
199841935U5217216988Reentered!
Lat=-46.7   Lon=259.3
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843244U9714013087Reentered!
Lat=23.1   Lon=187.4
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843586U9713611987Reentered!
Lat=-62.7   Lon=114.4
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-5
200227567U2730212689Reentered!
Lat=-24.2   Lon=143
IRIDIUM 62 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-7
199825285U8619211588Reentered!
Lat=-27.7   Lon=229
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-7
199841769U5215915088Reentered!
Lat=1.8   Lon=188.1
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-10
199841764U5217516988Reentered!
Lat=43.3   Lon=74.8
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-13
199842069U5220319889Reentered!
Lat=11.6   Lon=124.7
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-14
199842734U5221721089Reentered!
Lat=-4.1   Lon=294.5
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-22
199842731U5226725890Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-1
199842723U5228027090Forecast
IRVINE-01
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
201843693U8551549395Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-4
199842059U5227526690Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-16
199842718U5229829090Forecast
2018-088A
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-27
201843690U8550420992Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-28
199841932U5229728990Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-1
200227373U8645223291Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-3
201641883U283025144118Forecast
2018-083F
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-5
201843667U9847821291Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-11
201843129U9729027590Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-24
199842707U5231931291Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-27
199842732U5232131291Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-9
199842704U5232732191Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-10
199724715U78812134187Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-12
199842700U5232631991Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-14
199842708U5232632191Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-15
199842717U5232732091Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-18
201843166U8338927091Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-21
199843027U5234633991Forecast
DEBRISSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-22
199843621U5238937792Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
199842733U5233332491Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-12
198920230U281998175107Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-13
199842727U5233832991Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
199842725U5233732991Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-24
201742903U4333931791Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-7
199842736U5234333491Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-10
199842712U5235434992Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-11
201843532U9852322892Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-16
199842820U5234533991Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-16
199842822U5234634091Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-17
199842715U5234433791Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-20
199842823U5234733891Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-21
199724905U8654325593Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-25
199842824U5234834091Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-10
199842706U5234233891Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-12
199842713U5234734291Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-21
201743033U6760222693Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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