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The space junk LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE is forecast to reentry Friday, 24 Mar 2017 at 01:52 UTC +/- 8 hours
LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sat 21-Jan-2017 14:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE (41597U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 24 Mar 2017 at 01:52 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CADRE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-3
199841475U52º15915488Reentered!
Lat=33.2   Lon=103.5
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-8
201641559U97º13912187Reentered!
Lat=57.9   Lon=283.1
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-24
201641910U98º30018489Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-3
199841930U52º39738692Forecast
PHONESAT 2.4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-3
201339381U40º26124890Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-11
198819448U63º43316891Forecast
LEMUR-2-NATE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-3
201641598U52º31230691Forecast
BY70-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-11
201641909U98º44921191Forecast
LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-24
201641597U52º31931391Forecast
LEMUR-2-BRIDGEMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-25
201641596U52º31330791Forecast
SPINSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-26
199840314U52º27326990Forecast
LEMUR-2-JEFF
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-2
199841490U52º32732491Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-17
199841489U52º33833391Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-17
201641726U28º16196115291Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-5
199841931U52º40839593Forecast
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-6
199841485U52º33432991Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-17
200126874U82º28627890Forecast
LEMUR-2-NICK-ALLAIN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-18
199841488U52º33733491Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-4
199841474U52º34734691Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-6
199841566U52º35835592Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-6
199841476U52º34334191Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-4
199841314U52º34233891Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-10
201440120U98º35528491Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-7
201641595U52º35434992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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