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The space junk FLOCK 2E'-9 is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 13 Mar 2018 at 22:01 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Tue 23-Jan-2018 18:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E'-9 (41575U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 13 Mar 2018 at 22:01 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-25
199841571U5218717488Reentered!
Lat=-19.5   Lon=321.9
IRIDIUM 34 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-8
199724969U8617512688Reentered!
Lat=-1.3   Lon=70
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-11
199841939U5215715588Reentered!
Lat=-11   Lon=133.6
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-16
201743093U5134814189Reentered!
Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-17
201743094U5134714789Reentered!
Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-24
199841484U5218617988Forecast
SL-23 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-27
201743090U5131415389Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-29
201743092U5148616791Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-30
201743091U5147716891Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
200629053U7223823189Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-4
199842813U5228627790Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-7
201742748U2110088114204Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-9
199841576U5229329090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-12
199841563U5228427890Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-13
199725039U8633122290Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
201540881U202367136111Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-22
199841572U5230730391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-26
199841487U5231230491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-28
199841578U5228628290Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199841895U5230529891Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199842702U5232131391Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-11
200227391U8927926990Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-12
199841313U5228027790Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-13
199841575U5229229090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-26
199841573U5230830891Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
199842737U5233832991Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-8
201238249U9729728990Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-10
201137820U4328626190Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-16
199724965U8659822193Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-16
199841569U5231231091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-20
199841479U5231431191Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-21
199842067U5233132491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-4
199841577U5231631591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841574U5231131091Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199842703U5234934491Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-13
199843026U5238537992Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-14
201339436U9840239493Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-22
199841565U5231531491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
199841480U5231931791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-30
199841763U5235534692Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-6
200428476U391327187100Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-8
199841761U5235835092Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-22
199841776U5236135392Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-27
199841568U5233133191Forecast
EPSILON DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-11
201843154U9863923093Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-12
201741912U2716286132292Forecast
DUTHSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-15
199842724U5236836092Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-17
199842721U5236735892Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-21
199841483U5233233091Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-22
199842705U5236936692Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-22
199841486U5232632391Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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