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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Thu 18-Oct-2018 22:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-3
199842705U5215314487Reentered!
Lat=-9.3   Lon=258.5
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-4
199842068U5217416288Reentered!
Lat=-27.6   Lon=279.6
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-6
199841933U5216515488Reentered!
Lat=-20   Lon=330
IRIDIUM 20 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-21
199825577U8741914190Forecast
IRIDIUM 11 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199825578U8641114490Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-24
201742985U2323418108405Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
199841762U5226124890Forecast
IRIDIUM 83 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
199825531U8672416793Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-3
199841935U5226124990Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843586U9731520190Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843244U9723823289Forecast
IRIDIUM 84 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
199825530U8651518191Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-6
200227567U271390149100Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-8
199841769U5229428290Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-13
199841764U5229328290Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
199842069U5228327490Forecast
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
199842734U5229028090Forecast
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
199842731U5230129190Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-9
199842723U5230529891Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-10
199842059U5230029290Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-27
199842718U5231430991Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-11
199841932U5231030491Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-16
200227373U8650323992Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-16
201843129U9730528590Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-23
201641883U283751145126Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-7
199842732U5233032391Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-12
199842707U5232832491Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-14
199724715U710351133208Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-26
199842708U5233333091Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-26
201843166U8340327591Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-27
199842700U5233332891Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-1
199842725U5234233791Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
199842717U5233433091Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
199724905U8656625793Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-4
199842704U5233433091Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-14
201843532U9854923192Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-16
199842733U5233933291Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-18
199843027U5235334892Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-23
201742903U4334332591Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-27
198920230U282197176109Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-4
201743033U6762822593Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-11
199842727U5234333691Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-27
199842820U5234934591Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-29
199842823U5235134591Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-2
199842822U5235034692Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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