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The space junk FLOCK 2E'-6 is forecast to reentry Friday, 06 Apr 2018 at 13:06 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sat 17-Feb-2018 22:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E'-6 (41568U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 06 Apr 2018 at 13:06 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-23 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
201743090U5115512387Reentered!
Lat=-9.2   Lon=285.7
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
200629053U7213612887Reentered!
Lat=68.9   Lon=147.4
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-8
201742748U21147997101Reentered!
Lat=21.1   Lon=341.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-16
201843212U5215014087Reentered!
Lat=48.4   Lon=262
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-17
199841576U5218618088Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199841574U5228627690Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199841572U5227726590Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
199841895U5227226590Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
199841578U5226125090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841573U5228227290Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-6
199841487U5228627790Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-6
199842702U5229328690Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-7
199841577U5229929190Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-8
201540881U201436133101Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-14
200227391U8925824790Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-16
199841313U5226225490Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-18
199841575U5227726990Forecast
HUMANITY STAR
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
201843168U8346028292Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199842737U5232031591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-3
199841486U5231531191Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
199841568U5232231691Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-9
201238249U9728327790Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-10
201137820U4327325090Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-17
199842067U5232031791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-28
199841569U5230430091Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-30
199724965U8655322092Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841479U5230430291Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-6
199842703U5233833691Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-10
201339436U9839438692Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-19
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-15
199841777U5234634391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-16
199841565U5230930591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
199841761U5235034491Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-20
200428476U39119618799Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
199841763U5234634191Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
201843202U311899186106Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
199841480U5231231191Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
199843026U5237637292Forecast
TRICOM-1R (TASUKI)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-20
201843201U311912189106Forecast
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-26
199724968U8666821993Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-30
199841776U5235434892Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-14
199842721U5236135492Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-15
201641395U9837828691Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-23
201742796U9532930191Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-14
199841483U5232832691Forecast
DUTHSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-15
199842724U5236335792Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-29
199842714U5236536292Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-20
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-3
199841782U5235535192Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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