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The space junk FLOCK 2E-8 is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 26 Jul 2017 at 14:30 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E-8

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sat 22-Jul-2017 14:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E-8 (41566U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 26 Jul 2017 at 14:30 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-17
201741916U9713613087Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-18
200731116U556569992Reentered!
Lat=-11.3   Lon=229.1
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-21
201641726U2848310890Reentered!
Lat=17.1   Lon=171
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-26
199841566U5222222089Forecast
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-29
199842066U5228427490Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-23
201238253U551693140103Forecast
INFLATESAIL
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-6
201742770U9749347194Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-8
201641472U2416267117292Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-9
200629080U9827326790Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-19
199841936U5233932991Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-11
199841477U5231130991Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-16
199841478U5231331191Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-2
199842434U5237836892Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-6
199841931U5236235192Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-11
199842697U5239437992Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-6
201339404U4034032791Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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