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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Wed 29-Mar-2017 22:12 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-29
199841485U5220419889Forecast
LEMUR-2-NICK-ALLAIN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-5
199841488U5227025890Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-6
199841489U5227125890Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-11
199841476U5229929290Forecast
KT-2A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-14
201742062U9731920190Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-23
200126874U8224824389Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-3
199841474U5231631091Forecast
EGG
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-10
199841934U5237836992Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-17
201440120U9831726590Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-21
199841314U5231731391Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-24
201641595U5233132591Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-6
201641726U289155127192Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-29
199841566U5233833291Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-7
201238253U553788147126Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-7
199841477U5235334792Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-10
199841478U5235334892Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-16
200629080U9831831691Forecast
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-18
199842066U5240039192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-24
199841570U5236736192Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-28
199841574U5237136692Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-30
199841936U5239038192Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-6
201339404U4136435692Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-15
199841931U5239438292Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-14
200629053U7235734792Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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