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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Tue 16-Oct-2018 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-3
199842705U5215314487Reentered!
Lat=-9.3   Lon=258.5
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-4
199842068U5217416288Reentered!
Lat=-27.6   Lon=279.6
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-6
199841933U5216515488Reentered!
Lat=-20   Lon=330
IRIDIUM 20 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-20
199825577U8753714691Forecast
IRIDIUM 11 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-21
199825578U8649614991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-24
199841762U5227125990Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-27
201742985U233616894636Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-31
199841935U5226625590Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
201843244U9724323789Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-2
201843586U9732520390Forecast
IRIDIUM 84 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-2
199825530U8654218292Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-5
199841769U5229828890Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-6
200227567U271478149101Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-8
199841764U5229628690Forecast
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-11
199842734U5229428490Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-13
199842069U5228627790Forecast
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-20
199842731U5230329590Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-28
199842723U5230730091Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
199842059U5230129490Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-16
199842718U5231531191Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-22
199841932U5231130591Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-1
201843129U9730728690Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-9
200227373U8650824092Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-13
199842707U5232932591Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-16
201843166U8340627691Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-18
199842732U5233132491Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-25
201641883U283803145127Forecast
REMDEB-NET
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-2
199843621U5239539092Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-3
199842700U5233332991Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-5
199842708U5233333191Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-6
199724905U8656925793Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-8
199842717U5233433191Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-10
199842704U5233533191Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-12
199843027U5235434992Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-16
199724715U710512133210Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-17
201843532U9855423192Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-17
199842733U5234033391Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-27
199842725U5234233991Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
199842727U5234433791Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
198920230U282218176109Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-17
199842736U5234734191Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-21
201742903U4334432691Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-30
199842715U5234834491Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-30
201743033U6763422593Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-1
199842822U5235134792Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-2
199842820U5235034691Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-3
199842824U5235234692Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-3
199842712U5235935692Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-6
199842823U5235234692Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-20
199842706U5234634491Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-24
199842713U5235134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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