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The space junk FLOCK 2E'-4 is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 08 Nov 2017 at 18:08 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sun 12-Nov-2017 7:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E'-4 (41482U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 08 Nov 2017 at 18:08 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-16
201742972U5212211987Reentered!
Lat=26.3   Lon=51.6
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-25
199842697U5218817788Reentered!
Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-1
201339404U4015315188Reentered!
Lat=-39.7   Lon=344.9
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-3
201742802U24145380100Reentered!
Lat=-24.2   Lon=308.3
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-8
199841482U5218017788Reentered!
Lat=-21.8   Lon=223.7
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-11
200833411U9717916988Reentered!
Lat=-65.3   Lon=259.6
IRIDIUM 8 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-23
199724792U8652017892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-6
199841481U5230229090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-20
199841571U5232532091Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-8
199841939U5233032191Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-19
199841484U5233432991Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-23
200629053U7230329490Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-24
200227392U8930128890Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
199841563U5234333691Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-31
201540881U204297140132Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-1
199842813U5236435692Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
199725039U8650424392Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
199842702U5236035792Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
199841895U5234634291Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-27
199841313U5231731091Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
201137820U4331228791Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-8
199842737U5236736192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-9
199841578U5232631791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-11
199841575U5232831891Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
201238249U9732631391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
199841576U5233132391Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
200428476U391673193104Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-10
201339436U9842741793Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-14
199842067U5235434992Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-19
199841479U5233633291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-22
199841569U5233433091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-26
199841480U5233933491Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-26
199841565U5233833091Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-3
199841486U5234233891Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-4
199841573U5233532791Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841574U5233632791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-6
199841761U5237736892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
199841577U5233833191Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-11
199842703U5237136792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
199841572U5234033391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
199841568U5234934291Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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