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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Wed 23-May-2018 22:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-11 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-29
201843444U971489287Reentered!
Lat=-62.9   Lon=187.4
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
200227616U628238794Reentered!
Lat=-52.4   Lon=214.8
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-15
199843026U5217717188Reentered!
Lat=51.4   Lon=321.3
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
201339436U9822019689Reentered!
Lat=-63.9   Lon=121.2
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
200428476U3919014088Forecast
IRIDIUM 21 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
199925778U8626115589Forecast
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-26
199724968U8625318089Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-4
199841763U5226125890Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-4
199841761U5226726190Forecast
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-5
201843475U5229519989Forecast
IRIDIUM 68 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-5
199825291U8661416892Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-24
199841483U5228928490Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-28
199841776U5230730091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-29
199841567U5230129891Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-5
201843202U3195517696Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-23
201742796U9528726990Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-16
199842721U5232832091Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-22
201641395U9833126991Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-2
199725041U8644026092Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-12
201742762U4337124391Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-5
199842714U5234133591Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-14
199842068U5233632891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199841762U5235634992Forecast
SOYUZ-MS 07
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
201743063U5240740293Forecast
PROGRESS-MS 08
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
201843211U5240740293Forecast
SOYUZ-MS 08
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
201843238U5240740293Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-14
199841933U5233332691Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-18
199841769U5235935392Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
199842705U5234233791Forecast
FLOCK 2E-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-25
199841564U5232231691Forecast
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-27
199842734U5235434492Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
201843244U9730730391Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-6
200227567U274311157133Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-7
199841764U5236035392Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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