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The space junk FLOCK 2E'-1 is forecast to reentry Saturday, 05 May 2018 at 21:23 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E

Forecast for FLOCK 2E'-1 Reentry


Update Sun 8-Apr-2018 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E'-1 (41479U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Saturday, 05 May 2018 at 21:23 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-10
200227391U8916115288Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-10
201743040U2612949299Reentered!
Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
200126870U622929088Reentered!
Lat=39.4   Lon=206.9
HUMANITY STAR
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-22
201843168U8317917288Reentered!
Lat=13.9   Lon=61.8
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-25
201843239U5215214487Reentered!
Lat=41.9   Lon=8.1
IRIDIUM 23 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199724906U8617713088Reentered!
Lat=0.5   Lon=308.8
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199842737U5216816088Reentered!
Lat=-26.3   Lon=96.1
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-2
201137820U4315214487Reentered!
Lat=-13.6   Lon=195.7
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-3
201238249U9715213687Reentered!
Lat=0.6   Lon=336.2
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
199841569U5218317088Reentered!
Lat=14.5   Lon=293.8
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
199841565U5217716488Reentered!
Lat=-47   Lon=269.1
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-7
199724965U8615913987Reentered!
Lat=8.7   Lon=224.8
DRAGON CRS-14 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-7
201843269U5220317188Reentered!
Lat=49.8   Lon=120.8
DRAGON CRS-14 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-7
201843268U5221417188Reentered!
Lat=50.7   Lon=39.8
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-19
199842067U5226025290Reentered!
Lat=-23.4   Lon=8.8
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-21
199841480U5227827090Reentered!
Lat=24   Lon=4.6
IRIDIUM 94 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-24
200227374U8654216592Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841479U5226625890Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
200227616U623401881595Forecast
IRIDIUM 13 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-11
199724840U8658717392Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-16
199842703U5230429891Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-22
201339436U9835735592Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
199843026U5234433891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-19
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
199841777U5231430691Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-26
200428476U3987318295Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-9
199841761U5232732191Forecast
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-21
199724968U8655821692Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-24
199841763U5232131691Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-25
201843202U311442180101Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-17
199841567U5233633191Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-29
199841776U5233433291Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-14
201742796U9530829191Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-30
199841483U5231431291Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-3
199725041U8649426892Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-10
199842721U5234534291Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-17
200227567U274972159140Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-24
201641395U9835928091Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-25
201742762U4340724991Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-8
199842705U5235435192Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-14
199842714U5235335192Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-18
199842068U5234734391Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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