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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Mon 6-Jul-2020 17:52 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201238105U4729611289Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-23
202045799U5323917389Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-4
201944210U9714412487Reentered!
Lat=-61.3   Lon=81.5
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-7
202045719U5320817888Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8
202045729U9829215989Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8
202045604U9734514389Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
202045718U5322618589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-10
202045717U5323418589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11
202045720U5324018989Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
201944799U9823621289Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
202045793U5330119990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
202045798U5329519889Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
202045791U5331420390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25
202045792U5331420590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-30
202045853U5332220490Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1
201843658U6734719790Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-23
201339482U243680136125Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-30
199843598U5230129590Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-18
199843597U5230830391Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-24
199221941U41674169103Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-26
201843451U2731730115552Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-6
201944832U9734130991Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-16
199843554U5231531291Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-26
200833415U248098133178Forecast
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-6
201944830U9734731291Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-16
199843551U5232332091Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-19
201541195U235092140141Forecast
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-20
201641868U4328626590Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-20
201944500U4540428391Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-14
201843588U275228146143Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-23
201843230U276490132158Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-27
201944825U9736131591Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-1
200732261U401756181104Forecast
UITMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-14
199843589U5233633491Forecast
MAYA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-15
199843590U5233633491Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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