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The space junk DIWATA-1 is forecast to reentry Saturday, 16 May 2020 at 03:21 UTC +/- 8 hours
DIWATA-1

Forecast for DIWATA-1 Reentry


Update Wed 4-Dec-2019 18:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk DIWATA-1 (41463U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Saturday, 16 May 2020 at 03:21 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-7
201944702U52º16014588Reentered!
Lat=26.6   Lon=163.8
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-19
201741938U22º34510789Reentered!
Lat=7.9   Lon=150.8
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-20
201944778U97º19411688Reentered!
Lat=-12.6   Lon=97.8
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-27
201036591U21º49310590Reentered!
Lat=-19.1   Lon=188.8
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-4
201843540U55º3337589Reentered!
Lat=-53.3   Lon=52.4
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-4
201843242U20º101910496Reentered!
Lat=19.4   Lon=236.2
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-8
199842711U52º22021089Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-8
201944723U53º35435292Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-8
201944745U53º35535392Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1044
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-9
201944749U53º34634491Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-10
201944240U53º46946694Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-57
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-10
201944269U53º54153895Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-19
201944268U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944236U53º55154996Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944286U53º54454296Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944275U53º55554596Forecast
STARLINK-45
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944260U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-23
201944277U53º55055096Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-23
201944257U53º47947894Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-24
201944243U53º44843993Forecast
STARLINK-61
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-25
201944249U53º53252795Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-25
201944289U53º50850795Forecast
STARLINK-37
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-26
201944251U53º54354295Forecast
STARLINK-40
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-27
201944258U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-27
201944256U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-23
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944237U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-32
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944254U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944287U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-29
201944284U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-31
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-29
201944235U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-29
201944245U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1061
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944766U53º40940793Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944265U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1058
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944763U53º40940793Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944292U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-44
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944261U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1067
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944771U53º40940793Forecast
STARLINK-39
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944253U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-36
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944250U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944247U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-74
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944293U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-35
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944264U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1043
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944748U53º40940893Forecast
STARLINK-1053
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944758U53º40840693Forecast
STARLINK-78
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944290U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-30
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944244U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1062
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944767U53º40840693Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944252U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-51
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944272U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1065
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944770U53º41040893Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944246U53º32431691Forecast
STARLINK-49
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944262U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944270U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944241U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-54
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-4
201944266U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1054
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-4
201944759U53º40840693Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-5
201944769U53º41040993Forecast
STARLINK-24
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-5
201944238U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-6
201944288U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-50
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-6
201944285U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1056
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944761U53º40740593Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944274U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1055
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944760U53º40640493Forecast
STARLINK-25
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944239U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1050
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944755U53º40640493Forecast
STARLINK-1022
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944727U53º40740593Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944283U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944280U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-77
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944291U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944768U53º41040893Forecast
STARLINK-1042
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944747U53º40740593Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944743U53º41140993Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201944746U53º41140993Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201944294U53º53052995Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201944248U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944276U53º53052995Forecast
STARLINK-1046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944751U53º41141093Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944263U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-28
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-12
201944242U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-1039
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-12
201944744U53º41241093Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-15
201944750U53º41241193Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-15
201944267U53º53152995Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-17
201944255U53º53052995Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-18
201944279U53º53152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-20
201944776U53º27325790Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-21
201741912U27º2335143110Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944281U53º53152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
201944775U53º27426190Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-29
201944730U53º35134992Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
200832477U41º28127590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944773U53º28026390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944774U53º28026290Forecast
STARLINK-1033
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
201944738U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1060
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
201944765U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1031
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
201944736U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1047
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
201944752U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1035
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-30
201944740U53º35134992Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
201944372U45º37727991Forecast
STARLINK-1027
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-12
201944732U53º35134992Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
198920362U36º32429791Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
199843468U52º32732291Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
201641902U98º37024591Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
201944713U53º35134992Forecast
GAOFEN 12
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
201944819U98º62962897Forecast
STARLINK-1029
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-4
201944734U53º35134992Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-16
199841463U52º29829790Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-17
201944718U53º35134892Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-25
199843550U52º34333791Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
201944753U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
201944719U53º35134892Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-5
199842726U52º33232691Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-9
199844032U52º36235792Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-11
201742800U98º38525491Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201944278U53º32630091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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