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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sun 25-Sep-2016 7:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
AL-1 (AOLONG 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-27
201641629U41º18314688Reentered!
Lat=-37   Lon=356
2016-057G
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-16
201641781U43º23313288Reentered!
Forecast
2016-057F
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-18
201641780U43º26716189Reentered!
Forecast
2016-057D
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-19
201641778U43º28116489Reentered!
Forecast
2016-057E
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-20
201641779U43º33617990Reentered!
Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-20
199020874U64112192Reentered!
Lat=7   Lon=56
FLOCK 2B-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-21
199840956U52º16713487Reentered!
Lat=49.8   Lon=183.4
FLOCK 2B-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-22
199840950U52º15913587Reentered!
Lat=-51   Lon=165.8
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-24
201641387U97º13312387Reentered!
Lat=-24.4   Lon=170.6
FLOCK 2B-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-25
199840954U52º19718088Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-26
201641730U21º2351103110Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-26
200327706U39º29014889Forecast
2016-057C
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-30
201641767U43º28318289Forecast
2016-057B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-1
201641766U43º26718389Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-3
199724963U62º1635104102Forecast
FLOCK 2B-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-8
199840951U52º25425090Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-11
200428164U63º3241081564Forecast
FLOCK 2B-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-21
199840952U52º27927390Forecast
FLOCK 2B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-25
199840962U52º27827490Forecast
FLOCK 2B-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-27
199840979U52º28427990Forecast
ARIANE 5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-27
200935497U8944115189Forecast
FLOCK 2B-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-4
199840953U52º29028590Forecast
FLOCK 2B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-4
199840963U52º28828390Forecast
GOMX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-7
199840949U52º28027590Forecast
AVUM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-16
201238086U69º37721590Forecast
S-CUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-14
199840898U52º31131091Forecast
CADRE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-21
199841475U52º36936592Forecast
PHONESAT 2.4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-22
201339381U40º35634592Forecast
LEMUR-2-JEFF
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-3
199841490U52º38237692Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-8
201641559U97º42125591Forecast
LEMUR 2 NATE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-10
201641598U52º37636792Forecast
LEMUR 2 BRIDGEMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-16
201641596U52º37536692Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-20
199841489U52º38237692Forecast
SPINSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-26
199840314U52º32131491Forecast
LEMUR 2 CUBECHEESE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-11
201641597U52º37736892Forecast
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-11
199841485U52º38137792Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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