Brazil  Portugal  English
The space junk FIREFLY is forecast to reentry Sunday, 05 Nov 2017 at 08:45 UTC +/- 8 hours
FIREFLY

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Thu 19-Oct-2017 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FIREFLY (39404U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 05 Nov 2017 at 08:45 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-19
199841477U5215314988Reentered!
Lat=30.7   Lon=70.2
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-23
199841478U5214914287Reentered!
Lat=42.5   Lon=209.8
IRIDIUM 30 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-28
199724949U8616613387Reentered!
Lat=-14.3   Lon=257.2
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-3
199841570U5220819389Reentered!
Lat=-19.6   Lon=266.1
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-10
201742696U201737106103Reentered!
Lat=4.9   Lon=171.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-16
201742972U5212211987Reentered!
Lat=26.3   Lon=51.6
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
199841931U5216415688Reentered!
Lat=-28.6   Lon=27.9
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-19
199842434U5221520089Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-27
199842697U5229228090Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-5
201339404U4027425990Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-14
199841482U5231030191Forecast
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-21
200833411U9731631091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-20
199841481U5233032591Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-18
199841939U5234334191Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-31
201540881U205045141141Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-18
200629053U7231630691Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-19
199842813U5237537492Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-23
200227392U8931130591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-24
199841571U5233733391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-6
199841563U5235335092Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-7
199841895U5235635492Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-15
199725039U8653824892Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-15
199842702U5237236792Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
199841313U5232532091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-24
199841578U5233632891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
199841575U5233532991Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-5
199841573U5234133591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-7
199841576U5233933291Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-9
201238249U9733532191Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-10
199842067U5236335892Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-14
199842737U5237737192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-29
199841479U5234134091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

Satview - All Rights Reserved 2008 - 2017
Privacy policy