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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Tue 25-Apr-2017 22:13 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KT-2A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-8
201742062U9716013287Reentered!
Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-21
199841476U5220118688Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-23
201742683U5216915588Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-7 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-25
201742687U4331017589Forecast
CZ-7 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-26
201742688U4334018390Forecast
CZ-7 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-26
201742686U4236618090Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-26
200126874U8218517888Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-4
199841474U5227426390Forecast
EGG
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-8
199841934U5233532591Forecast
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-9
201742685U4334620090Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-16
201440120U9828224890Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-27
199841314U5229929090Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-1
201641595U5231130891Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-7
201741916U9841423891Forecast
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-7
199842066U5238037792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-21
199841566U5232531791Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-25
201238253U553097146119Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-26
199841936U5237537192Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-2
201641726U287199127167Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-8
200629080U9830930591Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-16
199841477U5234333891Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-19
199841478U5234433991Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-27
199841931U5238337692Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-31
199842434U5240039392Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-6
201339404U4035734892Forecast
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-11
200731116U5513226126247Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-14
199841939U5239038292Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-30
199841570U5236135792Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-9
200629053U7235334291Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-11
201137820U4335232991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-12
199841575U5236536092Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
199841895U5239338792Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-19
201339436U9846945494Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-21
199841313U5235735292Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-28
199841576U5236736392Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-1
199841482U5236336192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-2
199841578U5236736192Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-5
199842067U5240139092Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-6
201641883U2819076128335Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-7
199841569U5236636492Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-8
199841573U5236836392Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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