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The space junk CZ-3B R/B is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 08 Aug 2017 at 21:12 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-3B R/B

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Mon 27-Feb-2017 22:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-3B R/B (38253U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 08 Aug 2017 at 21:12 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-7
198819448U63º17512087Reentered!
Lat=-17.2   Lon=119.3
BY70-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-18
201641909U98º16013687Reentered!
Lat=-10.9   Lon=159.2
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-24
201742057U52º14212187Reentered!
Lat=-1.6   Lon=118.5
LEMUR-2-NATE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-27
201641598U52º15814988Forecast
LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-9
201641597U52º26425290Forecast
LEMUR-2-BRIDGEMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-10
201641596U52º27025990Forecast
SPINSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-14
199840314U52º23722989Forecast
LEMUR-2-JEFF
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-24
199841490U52º29628890Forecast
LEMUR-2-NICK-ALLAIN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-5
199841488U52º31430891Forecast
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-7
199841485U52º30529891Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-16
199841489U52º31530891Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-26
199841476U52º32532091Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-3
200126874U82º27126790Forecast
EGG
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-6
199841934U52º40038892Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-1
199841474U52º33433091Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-9
201641726U28º11685123226Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-17
201641595U52º34333791Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-21
201440120U98º33627791Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-24
199841566U52º34834591Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-29
199841314U52º32932791Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-16
199841936U52º40038892Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-4
201641883U28º28131125487Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-8
201238253U55º4346148133Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-24
199841931U52º40138992Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-29
199841478U52º36035792Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-30
199841477U52º35935692Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-2
200629080U98º32732391Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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