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The space junk CZ-3B R/B is forecast to reentry Thursday, 17 Aug 2017 at 22:58 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-3B R/B

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Wed 16-Aug-2017 22:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-3B R/B (38253U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 17 Aug 2017 at 22:58 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-21
201641726U2848310890Reentered!
Lat=17.1   Lon=171
SL-04 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-1
201742899U5215815288Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-17
201238253U5547612591Forecast
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-5
201540486U2535014117615Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-10
200629080U9825224289Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-25
199841936U5231631091Forecast
INFLATESAIL
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-27
201742770U9745944794Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-2
201641472U2410674112212Forecast
IRIDIUM 30 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
199724949U8667819493Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
199841477U5229829490Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-24
199841478U5230129791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-3
199841570U5234434291Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-23
199841931U5235234592Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-1
199842434U5236936192Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-14
199842697U5238337492Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-29
201339404U4033132291Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
199725039U8664725394Forecast
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-16
200833411U9736736192Forecast
ARIANE 42L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-26
199322655U529488279514Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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